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JONBUR Research · Update note

Samsung Electronics · 005930 · Electronics

Samsung Electronics: News Flags Confirmed Q3 Results This Week, With Operating Profit Forecast at ₩185T

Why this report

Written after:

A Yonhap News Agency report says confirmed Q3 earnings are due this week and that HBM4 could push operating profit to ₩185T. This is a press forecast, not a filing, and it sits well above the preliminary ₩107.4T in the previous report, so the numbers need checking when the confirmed figures arrive.

Written Oct 24, 2026 · Data as of Oct 23, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

On 2026-10-24 Yonhap News Agency reported that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will confirm Q3 earnings this week, with HBM4 seen driving operating profit to ₩185T. The headline does not say whether ₩185T is for one quarter or another period, and no filing excerpt backs it up. It is not clear what the forecast covers.

The previous report cited preliminary Q3 revenue of ₩195.0T and operating income of ₩107.4T, with nine-month operating income of ₩254.1T. The ₩185T figure does not match these, and we cannot reconcile them from the data given. Smaller recent events were routine: Samsung C&T's 5%+ holding stayed at 19.69% (0.0 pts change) in reports on 2026-10-08, 10-16 and 10-23.

The share price closed at ₩215,500 on 2026-10-23, down 24.5% over one month and up 123.3% over one year. The 52-week range is ₩94,500 to ₩374,500.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report (2026-10-13) described a sharp earnings upswing but questioned how lasting the profits are. This news does not change that. If confirmed results land near the preliminary figures, the upswing part holds. The durability question remains open: the operating margin was 2.5% in 2023 and the trailing margin is now 36.9%.

The concerns from the earlier report (Chinese DRAM competition, the end of buybacks, foreign selling) are not resolved here. Foreign investors sold about ₩5.4T over 20 days, and foreign ownership is 46.1% against 46.7% sixty days ago. One headline mentions the risk of losing a core market to TSMC.

What it changes for the valuation

Our updated model gives a fair value of ₩79,303 (bear), ₩104,780 (base) and ₩142,690 (bull) per share, a model estimate based on the assumptions shown: a DCF at a 10.5% discount rate on trailing figures to H1 2026. The previous report's range was ₩152,275 / ₩186,852 / ₩234,441 at a 9.0% discount rate, so the model range is lower.

The share price of ₩215,500 is above the top of the new range. The model does not include Q3 results, which could change it once Q3 cash flow is filed. Trailing P/E is 8.4 and P/B is 2.2, based on H1 figures.

Closing view

The news points to strong earnings, but it is a press forecast with unclear scope and does not match the preliminary ₩107.4T. Our model estimate is lower than before and below the market price, and the cyclical and competitive questions remain. The evidence is mixed, and the confirmed Q3 filing and cash flow figures will be the first solid test of both the news and the model.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩79,303
-64%
Base
₩104,780
-53%
Bull
₩142,690
-36%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 10.5%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 24, 2026Update noteNewsSamsung Electronics: News Flags Confirmed Q3 Results This Week, With Operating Profit Forecast at ₩185T
  2. Oct 13, 2026Update noteEarningsSamsung Electronics Reports Preliminary Q3 2026 Operating Profit of ₩107.4T
  3. Oct 13, 2026InitiationSamsung Electronics: Record Trailing Profit Meets a Sharp Pullback From the 52-Week High

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information