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JONBUR Research · Update note

Kyung-In Synthetic · 012610 · Chemicals

Kyung-In Synthetic: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 69% to ₩3,663 per Share

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved -69% (₩11,771 → ₩3,663 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of fair value for Kyung-In Synthetic fell 69%, from ₩11,771 to ₩3,663 per share, with no new company filing behind it. The change removes the wide gap between the model and the share price that the previous report highlighted.

Written Oct 21, 2026 · Data as of Oct 20, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

The event is a model revision, not a company disclosure. No filing excerpts or news headlines accompany it, and no smaller recent events are listed as background.

The base estimate moved from ₩11,771 to ₩3,663 per share. The bear case went from ₩7,074 to ₩0, and the bull case from ₩19,532 to ₩13,233. The discount rate used fell from 7.7% to 5.7%. The financial base is unchanged: trailing figures to H1 2026, with revenue of ₩406.8B, operating income of ₩25.4B and net income of ₩20.2B.

The share price closed at ₩3,120 on 2026-10-20, versus ₩3,165 in the previous report. Market cap is ₩129.8B. Enterprise value is now shown as ₩292.2B and EV/EBITDA as 5.8, against ₩118.5B and 2.4 previously. The data does not explain this difference, so we cannot say whether it comes from a different treatment of borrowings (₩218.8B) and cash (₩56.4B) or from something else.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a profit recovery from a weak 2025, with operating margin up from 4.3% to 6.2% and trailing ROE of 8.2%. It also stressed uneven earnings, including a 2023 loss, and no information on what drives future results. None of those facts has changed.

What changed is the model's reading of them. The earlier statement that all three cases sat above the price no longer holds for the bear case, and the base case is now close to the price. The report had already warned that the result was very sensitive to cash flow assumptions given volatile past earnings, and the size of this revision confirms that sensitivity. The recovery thesis is neither confirmed nor contradicted by the new figure.

What it changes for the valuation

The updated model estimate, based on the assumptions shown, is ₩0 (bear), ₩3,663 (base) and ₩13,233 (bull) per share, against ₩7,074, ₩11,771 and ₩19,532 previously. The share price of ₩3,120 is about 14.8% below the new base figure, compared with a gap of roughly 73% to the old base.

The range is very wide, and a bear case of zero shows how much the output depends on the cash flow inputs. The lower discount rate of 5.7% did not offset the other changes. The model estimate is not a target.

Market multiples are as before: P/E of 6.4 and P/B of 0.5, with no dividend yield shown.

Closing view

The evidence for the earnings recovery is unchanged, but the model's support for a large gap between value and price has largely gone. The new base estimate is near the market price, and the bear case of zero signals high uncertainty rather than a precise reading. With no company event behind the change and the enterprise value figure shifting without explanation in the data, the revision should be read as a change in model inputs, not as new information about the business. The picture stays mixed: improving trailing profits, a record of instability, and a model that is highly sensitive to its assumptions.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩0
-100%
Base
₩3,663
+24%
Bull
₩13,233
+347%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 5.7%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeKyung-In Synthetic: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 69% to ₩3,663 per Share
  2. Oct 19, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Kyung-In Synthetic: Profits Recovering From a 2025 Dip While Shares Trade Below Book Value

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information