Hyundai Bioscience: Model Estimate Rises to ₩374 per Share, Still Far Below Market Price

What happened

The model estimate moved from ₩109 to ₩374 per share in the base case. The bear case is now ₩398 and the bull case ₩342, so the bear case is again higher than the bull case, as in the previous report. The discount rate changed slightly from 9.4% to 9.3%, and the financial period is the same (trailing twelve months to H1 2026). No new filings explain the change, and the data gives no detail on which inputs drove it. Trailing revenue is ₩3.3B, operating loss ₩19.3B and net loss ₩28.6B, with free cash flow of -₩16.5B. Cash is ₩17.1B against borrowings of ₩21.3B. No smaller recent events are relevant here.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report (2026-10-18) described a company priced on expectations rather than current results. Nothing in the data changes that. Revenue fell 76.6% in 2025, the trailing operating margin is -580.0%, and cash is limited relative to the burn. The SFTS treatment headline from 2026-10-13 is still without detail on timing, cost or results. Over the 20 days the data covers, retail buying was ₩2.5B, while foreign investors sold ₩0.5B and institutions sold ₩0.6B. Foreign ownership is 6.3%, versus 7.4% sixty days ago. The model revision is a change in the estimate, not a change in the business.

What it changes for the valuation

The model (5-year discounted cash flow at 9.3%) now gives a base-case estimate of ₩374 per share, against ₩109 previously. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target. The share price of ₩6,690 is about 17.9 times the new base estimate, so the market still values the company far above what the model supports. Market value is about ₩645.6B, price-to-book is 6.2, price-to-sales is 194.4, and enterprise value is ₩625.1B. P/E and EV/EBITDA cannot be calculated because earnings are negative. The bear case being above the bull case is an inconsistency in the output, so the range should be treated with caution.

Closing view

The model estimate more than tripled, but the move was not tied to any new filing or reported result in the data, and the trailing numbers remain those of a small, loss-making company. The gap between the estimate and the price is still very large, and the data does not show what would close it. The revision is better read as a change in model inputs than as new evidence about the business. Readers should weigh the unchanged cash burn and limited cash against the unquantified potential of the treatment pipeline.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩398

-93%

Base

₩374

-94%

Bull

₩342

-94%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 9.3%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• Insider shareholding reportOct 13, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportOct 13, 2026
• Amended: Half-year report (Jun 2026)Oct 2, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportSep 30, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportSep 16, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportSep 16, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportSep 8, 2026
• Major management matter relevant to investorsSep 4, 2026
• Added attachment: Half-year report (Jun 2026)Aug 13, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportAug 6, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportJul 22, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportJun 30, 2026
• Hyundai Bio Plans Development of SFTS Treatment, Aims for Rapid Entry into Phase 2 Clinical TrialOct 13, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-20
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeHyundai Bioscience: Model Estimate Rises to ₩374 per Share, Still Far Below Market Price
2. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Hyundai Bioscience: Small Revenue, Widening Losses and a Model Estimate Far Below the Share Price