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Gabia · 079940 · Software

Gabia: Model fair value estimate cut about 35% after a model re-run

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved -35% (₩42,922 → ₩27,905 per share)Oct 22, 2026

The model estimate of Gabia's base fair value fell 35% to ₩27,905 per share from ₩42,922 in the initiation report. The base estimate now sits below the current share price, which reverses the position described in the previous report.

Written Oct 27, 2026 · Data as of Oct 26, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model estimate of fair value moved from ₩42,922 to ₩27,905 per share, a change of 35%. No company filings or other events are attached to this change, and the data gives no stated reason for it. The latest model run, which uses the same trailing figures to H1 2026, shows a base of ₩28,754, a bear of ₩7,878 and a bull of ₩64,542, using a 7.1% discount rate versus 7.5% before. The share price closed at ₩39,450 on 2026-10-26, up from ₩38,500 on 2026-10-19, and market cap is ₩529.4B. Recent filings continue to show amended lawsuit notices, the latest on 2026-10-26, and amended shareholders' meeting documents, but their contents are not available to us.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described growing revenue, a recovering operating margin of 14.2%, and free cash flow of ₩52.1B above net income of ₩18.2B. Those figures are unchanged. The report also flagged the sharp share price re-rating, thin net margin of 5.2% and a cluster of ownership, meeting and lawsuit filings whose details we lack. Foreign ownership is now 34.2% versus 41.5% sixty days ago, and the share price is down 17.0% over three months. The operating story is intact, but the valuation side of the caution has become more pronounced. The new lawsuit amendment adds to the open questions without clarifying them.

What it changes for the valuation

The model (5-year DCF) now gives a base of ₩27,905 per share, a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target. The previous base was ₩42,922, with a bear of ₩26,495 and a bull of ₩70,352. The latest run lists a base of ₩28,754, bear of ₩7,878 and bull of ₩64,542, and these differ slightly from the ₩27,905 figure in the event, so the exact numbers should be treated cautiously. In either case the base estimate is well below the ₩39,450 close, and the bear case is far lower than before. The range is extremely wide, which means the result is highly sensitive to the inputs. Current multiples are P/E 29.1, P/B 2.9 and P/S 1.5, higher than the 2023 and 2024 year-end levels. The 52-week range is ₩24,900 to ₩47,900.

Closing view

The business data has not changed, but the model no longer places the base estimate above the market price: it now sits about 29% below the ₩39,450 close. Because the bear-to-bull range runs from under ₩8,000 to over ₩64,000, the estimate is better read as a sensitivity indicator than a conclusion. The unexplained lawsuit and shareholder-related filings remain the main gap in the picture. Readers may want to review those filings directly, and to treat the model's drop as a reminder of how sensitive Gabia's valuation is to assumptions.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩7,878
-80%
Base
₩28,754
-27%
Bull
₩64,542
+64%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.1%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 27, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeGabia: Model fair value estimate cut about 35% after a model re-run
  2. Oct 20, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Gabia: Strong one-year share gain, higher multiples and a busy run of governance and lawsuit filings

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information