DNFCo: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 40% to ₩2,942 Per Share

What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model estimate of fair value was revised. The base case moved from ₩4,942 to ₩2,942 per share, a fall of 40.0%. No company filings, news or minor events are provided that explain the change, so the reason for the revision is not available in the data.

The model still uses a 5-year discounted cash flow at an 8.2% rate on trailing data to H1 2026, the same discount rate and data period as before. The bear case is now ₩1,983 (previously ₩2,882) and the bull case ₩4,833 (previously ₩8,364). The share price closed at ₩13,300 on 2026-10-20, down from ₩13,790 at the time of the previous report.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a recovery that is under way but unproven: operating income moved from a ₩2.9B loss in 2023 to a ₩2.5B profit over the trailing twelve months, with ₩10.0B of free cash flow and very low leverage. Those reported figures have not changed in the data, so the underlying facts of that thesis are intact.

What the revision does suggest is that the model now gives less credit to the cash flows behind that recovery. The earlier caution still applies: the operating margin is 2.9%, return on equity is 2.0%, and net income of ₩3.0B exceeds operating income. Because the cause of the revision is not shown, we cannot say whether it reflects a change in inputs or in model assumptions.

What it changes for the valuation

The model estimate, based on the assumptions shown, is now ₩1,983 (bear), ₩2,942 (base) and ₩4,833 (bull) per share. The previous range was ₩2,882, ₩4,942 and ₩8,364. This is not a target price.

The share price of ₩13,300 is about 4.5 times the new base estimate and about 2.8 times the new bull case. It was already above the old bull case at ₩13,790. On current figures the shares trade at 51.5 times earnings, 1.0 times book value and 1.8 times sales, with a dividend yield of 0.8%. Enterprise value is ₩127.8B and EV/EBITDA is not available. Over the past month the shares rose 8.1%, and over one year they are down 20.3%.

Closing view

The evidence on the business is unchanged: a clean balance sheet, positive free cash flow and a recent return to a small operating profit. The revision, however, lowers the model's view of value and widens the gap to the market price, which means the market is pricing in a much stronger recovery than the model assumes. The data does not explain why the estimate fell, so the revision should be read as a change in the model, not as new information from the company. Upcoming filings on margins and operating income remain the clearest test of whether the recovery is durable.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩1,983

-85%

Base

₩2,942

-78%

Bull

₩4,833

-64%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 8.2%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• Half-year report (Jun 2026)Aug 14, 2026
• Quarterly report (Mar 2026)May 15, 2026
• Change of Department AffiliationApr 30, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportApr 21, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportApr 21, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportApr 14, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportApr 14, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportApr 2, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportApr 2, 2026
• Corporate value-up planMar 26, 2026
• Change of CEOMar 26, 2026
• Annual general meeting resultsMar 26, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-20
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeDNFCo: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 40% to ₩2,942 Per Share
2. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)DNFCo: Earnings Recovering From Losses, but Shares Trade Well Above a Model Estimate