Koh Young Technology: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩6,708 per Share

What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model estimate of fair value moved from ₩3,099 to ₩6,708 per share, a rise of 116%. No new company filing explains the move, and no filing excerpts were provided.

The updated range is a bear case of ₩5,118, a base of ₩6,708 and a bull case of ₩9,378. It is still based on trailing data to H1 2026 and uses a discount rate of 8.0%, against 7.9% before. The data does not state which input changed to cause the jump, so we cannot attribute it to a specific driver.

As background, J.P. Morgan Securities PLC reported 5%+ holder changes on 2026-10-15 (7.02%, +0.09 points) and 2026-10-16 (7.61%, +0.59 points). These are minor and do not drive this note.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report's thesis was an earnings recovery, with operating margin up from 1.6% in 2024 to 7.5% in 2025 and 12.4% trailing, alongside high market expectations. The latest data shows the same trailing figures: revenue of ₩290.9B, operating margin of 12.4% and return on equity of 13.9%. The recovery story is therefore unchanged.

What has changed is the model's reading of that recovery. The previous report said the market was pricing in much more than the model assumed. That remains true, though less so.

Foreign ownership has risen further, to 33.0% from 24.9% 60 days ago. Foreigners were net buyers of about ₩98.0B over 20 days. This is consistent with the earlier observation of strong foreign interest, and it does not change the model.

What it changes for the valuation

The model estimate is now ₩5,118 / ₩6,708 / ₩9,378 (bear / base / bull), against ₩1,755 / ₩3,099 / ₩5,349 in the previous report. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target.

The share price closed at ₩30,300 on 2026-10-20, down from ₩32,800 in the previous report. It is about 3.2 times the new bull case of ₩9,378 and about 4.5 times the base case of ₩6,708. The price remains well above even the bull case.

Market multiples are 43.4 times earnings, 5.7 times book value and 7.1 times sales, with a dividend yield of 0.5%. EV/EBITDA is not available. These are slightly lower than in the previous report, mainly because of the lower share price.

Closing view

The new model range is more than double the previous one, but the data does not explain what drove the change, so it should be read with caution. The fundamentals shown in the filings are the same as before: a clear recovery in margins and returns, a low-debt balance sheet and positive free cash flow of ₩29.7B.

The gap between the share price and the model range remains very large, which means the market is still assuming far more than the model does. The update narrows that gap on paper but does not resolve it. The data lacks news, guidance and short-balance information that might explain the market's higher expectations.

This note is not a recommendation.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩5,118

-84%

Base

₩6,708

-78%

Bull

₩9,378

-70%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 8%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• 5%+ holding reportOct 16, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportOct 15, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportOct 14, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportOct 7, 2026
• Investor relations (IR) eventOct 1, 2026
• Amended: Treasury share sale decisionSep 30, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportSep 29, 2026
• Treasury share sale decisionSep 29, 2026
• Investor relations (IR) eventSep 14, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportSep 8, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportSep 8, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportSep 8, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-20
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeKoh Young Technology: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩6,708 per Share
2. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (redone with new statements)Koh Young Technology: Earnings Recovery in Filings, Share Price Well Above Model Estimate