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JONBUR Research · Update note

KolmarBNH · 200130 · Biotech & Pharma

KolmarBNH: Model Fair Value Estimate Halves to ₩12,979 per Share

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved -50% (₩25,939 → ₩12,979 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of KolmarBNH's fair value fell 50.0% to ₩12,979 per share in the base case, from ₩25,939 in the previous report. The change comes from the model inputs, not from a new company filing, and it narrows but does not close the gap to the ₩7,850 share price.

Written Oct 21, 2026 · Data as of Oct 20, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model estimate of fair value was cut from ₩25,939 to ₩12,979 per share in the base case, a fall of 50.0%. No company filings or news were attached to this event, and no smaller recent events were flagged as background.

The model is still a 5-year discounted cash flow based on trailing figures to H1 2026. The discount rate shown is now 7.0%, versus 7.5% in the previous report. A lower rate would normally raise a value, so the halving must come from other model inputs that the data does not detail. The reason for the cut therefore cannot be determined here.

The underlying trailing figures shown are the same as before: revenue ₩538.2B, operating income ₩32.9B (6.1% margin), net income -₩1.6B and free cash flow ₩29.2B. Borrowings are ₩108.1B against cash of ₩76.1B. The previous report described the company as debt-free, which does not match the borrowings figure in the current data.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described stable revenue but weak bottom-line profitability, with net income negative and the stock at 0.6x book value. Nothing in the current data contradicts that picture. Trailing operating margin and net income are unchanged, and the share price moved only from ₩7,800 to ₩7,850.

Two points differ. First, the previous report called the balance sheet debt-free, but the current data shows ₩108.1B of borrowings, so that part of the thesis should be treated with caution. Second, the large drop in the model estimate suggests the earlier valuation gap was less robust than it looked. Foreign ownership has fallen further, to 2.8% from 4.5% sixty days ago, and the 20-day flows are small: foreign -₩0.7B, institutions +₩0.03B, retail +₩0.7B.

What it changes for the valuation

The model estimate based on the assumptions shown is now ₩12,979 per share in the base case, ₩5,482 in the bear case and ₩26,506 in the bull case. The previous report had ₩25,939 base, ₩16,261 bear and ₩42,110 bull. Every case fell, and the bear case is now below the ₩7,850 share price.

The base case is still about 65% above the share price, but the range is very wide, from below the share price to more than three times it. That shows how sensitive the estimate is to its assumptions. Enterprise value is ₩257.8B in the current data, versus ₩148.3B in the previous report. The stock trades at 0.6x book and 0.4x sales. P/E and EV/EBITDA are not available. The estimate is not a price target or a signal to buy or sell.

Closing view

The evidence is mixed and the estimate is less favorable than before. The company has positive operating profit and free cash flow, and the stock trades below book value and its own history. Net income is negative, revenue has been shrinking, and foreign ownership keeps falling. The halving of the model estimate, without a stated cause and alongside an unchanged business picture, is a reminder that the earlier figure was fragile. The bear case below the share price shows the downside scenarios are material. Investors should watch upcoming filings for operating margin, net income and borrowings, and treat the model range as a guide to uncertainty, not a forecast.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩5,482
-24%
Base
₩12,979
+80%
Bull
₩26,506
+267%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeKolmarBNH: Model Fair Value Estimate Halves to ₩12,979 per Share
  2. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)KolmarBNH: Share Price Down 46.6% Over a Year as Profits Slip Into a Net Loss

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information