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JONBUR Research · Update note

Hansol Paper · 213500 · Wood & Paper

Hansol Paper: Model Fair Value Estimate Falls 60% to ₩12,838 Per Share

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved -60% (₩31,889 → ₩12,838 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model's base fair value for Hansol Paper fell 60%, from ₩31,889 to ₩12,838 per share, two days after the initiation report. The change comes from a model input update, not a new company filing, and it leaves the wide-range caveat in the earlier report intact.

Written Oct 21, 2026 · Data as of Oct 20, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model's base estimate moved from ₩31,889 to ₩12,838 per share, a drop of 60%. No company filings or other events accompany the change, and there are no smaller background events to note.

The model is still a 5-year discounted cash flow on trailing H1 2026 figures. The discount rate is now 4.7%, versus 5.4% before. The bear case stays at ₩0, and the bull case moved from ₩123,955 to ₩144,136.

The data pack shows a few changes from the earlier report. Enterprise value is now ₩1,027.3B, against ₩458.7B in the initiation report. The share price is ₩7,050 as of 2026-10-20, against ₩7,180 earlier. The reason for these changes is not given in the data.

What it changes for the thesis

The initiation report described a low-margin paper maker with recovering profit, a P/B of 0.2, a 7.0% dividend yield, negative free cash flow and high leverage. None of those operating facts has changed in the data: trailing operating income is still ₩72.3B, net income ₩22.1B, free cash flow -₩61.8B, and liabilities are 192.4% of equity.

The lower base estimate does not change the thesis. It reinforces the earlier point that the model's output is very sensitive to assumptions given thin margins and negative cash flow.

What it changes for the valuation

The model now gives a base estimate of ₩12,838 per share, with a bear case of ₩0 and a bull case of ₩144,136. The previous report had ₩31,889 base, ₩0 bear and ₩123,955 bull. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target.

At a share price of ₩7,050, the new base estimate is about 82% above the price, against about 344% above for the old one. The gap is much narrower, but the range from ₩0 to ₩144,136 is so wide that it says little with confidence.

On simple multiples, P/E is 7.6, P/B 0.2 and P/S 0.1. The dividend yield is 7.1%. EV/EBITDA is not available.

Closing view

The 60% cut shows how unstable the model estimate is for a company with thin margins and negative free cash flow. It reflects a model recalculation, not new information about the business. The operating picture from the initiation report stands: profit recovering from a weak base, low returns, high leverage and a low price-to-book. The estimate should be read as one sensitive input among several, and the data alone does not settle whether the recent profit gains will last.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩0
-100%
Base
₩12,838
+89%
Bull
₩144,136
+2017%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 4.7%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeHansol Paper: Model Fair Value Estimate Falls 60% to ₩12,838 Per Share
  2. Oct 20, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Hansol Paper: Thin Margins and Low Book Multiple, With Profit Recovering From a Weak Base

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information