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JONBUR Research · Initiation

Tonymoly · 214420 · Cosmetics

Tonymoly: Shares Down 51.3% Over a Year While Trailing Profit Stays Positive

Why this report

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Tonymoly's shares closed at ₩4,515 on 2026-10-23, down 51.3% over one year, with a market value of about ₩108.6B. Trailing revenue of ₩214.8B and net income of ₩11.3B point to a business that has moved from losses in 2021-2022 to modest profits.

Written Oct 26, 2026 · Data as of Oct 23, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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Thesis

The data supports a company that has grown revenue every year shown and returned to profit after losses in 2021 and 2022. Trailing operating margin is 5.4%, slightly below the 6.5% of 2025 and 6.8% of 2024, so margin gains have stalled.

The share price has fallen sharply (-9.4% in one month, -51.3% in one year) and sits near the 52-week low of ₩4,190, against a high of ₩10,520. The data does not explain the drop, and no news headlines are available.

Filings on 2026-09-03 show a change of largest shareholder and related holding reports. The data does not give details, so their meaning cannot be assessed. Foreign ownership is low at 2.1%, down from 2.4% sixty days earlier.

Business overview

Tonymoly is a cosmetics company listed on KOSPI since 2015-07-10, founded in 2006, with 24,054,799 listed shares and co-CEOs 김승철 and 배진형. Revenue rose from ₩114.6B in 2021 to ₩220.3B in 2025. Growth was 10.6% in 2022, 19.2% in 2023, 17.1% in 2024 and 24.5% in 2025. Market value is far smaller than the listed peers shown, such as Kolmar Korea at ₩2.9T and Amorepacific at ₩7.5T.

Financial analysis

From filed financial statements: 2025 revenue was ₩220.3B, operating income ₩14.4B and net income ₩11.1B. In 2024, net income was higher at ₩16.4B on operating income of ₩12.1B. Operating losses of ₩13.5B in 2021 and ₩7.3B in 2022 turned positive in 2023 at ₩9.6B.

Trailing twelve months to H1 2026: revenue ₩214.8B, operating income ₩11.6B, net income ₩11.3B, operating margin 5.4%, net margin 5.2% and ROE 9.7%. ROE was 16.0% in 2024 and 9.8% in 2025.

The balance sheet shows liabilities at 82.6% of equity, borrowings of ₩59.6B against cash of ₩10.8B. Free cash flow is ₩8.8B.

Valuation

Current P/E is 9.6, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.5 and dividend yield 1.1%. Enterprise value is ₩146.9B; EV/EBITDA is not available. Year-end P/E was 18.1 in 2025, 9.1 in 2024 and 27.5 in 2023, and year-end P/B was 1.7, 1.4 and 1.1, so today's multiples are below recent year-end levels.

Peers in the data show P/E of 15.6 to 26.3 (LG H&H not available) and P/B of 0.7 to 16.4. Tonymoly's P/E is below the available peer figures, and its P/B of 0.9 is below most peers apart from LG H&H at 0.7.

The valuation model (5-year discounted cash flow, 6.4% rate, TTM to H1 2026) gives a base estimate of ₩4,828 per share, with a bear case of ₩151 and a bull case of ₩14,013. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target. The base case is close to the ₩4,515 share price, and the very wide range shows high sensitivity to assumptions.

Catalysts

  • The 2026-09-03 filings on a change of largest shareholder and holdings could affect governance and ownership, though details are not in the data.
  • Filings on 2026-08-03 reported trading plans for specific securities by executives and major shareholders.
  • The half-year report filed on 2026-08-14 supplied the latest trailing figures, and the next periodic report will update them.
  • Over the past 20 days institutions were net buyers (₩91.4M) while retail (-₩83.3M) and foreigners (-₩5.9M) were net sellers.

Risks

  • The share price has fallen 51.3% in a year and trades near its 52-week low, showing weak market sentiment.
  • Operating margin of 5.4% is thin and below the 2024 and 2025 levels.
  • Borrowings of ₩59.6B are well above cash of ₩10.8B, with liabilities at 82.6% of equity.
  • Net income fell from ₩16.4B in 2024 to ₩11.1B in 2025, and ROE dropped from 16.0% to 9.8%.
  • The model's bear-to-bull range (₩151 to ₩14,013) shows how uncertain the estimate is, and ownership changes add uncertainty.

Closing view

The data shows a company that has grown revenue and moved into steady profit, with modest returns and a leveraged balance sheet. Multiples are low relative to its own recent history and to most listed peers, and the model's base estimate is close to the current price. Against that, the share price has halved, margins have flattened, and the ownership filings are unexplained in the data. The evidence is mixed and does not point clearly in one direction.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩151
-97%
Base
₩4,828
+9%
Bull
₩14,013
+217%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 6.4%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 26, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Tonymoly: Shares Down 51.3% Over a Year While Trailing Profit Stays Positive

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information