Tonymoly토니모리
214420 · KOSPI · ₩214420 · 토니모리
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩4,862
vs the current price (₩4,445)
- Enterprise value
- ₩119B
- Equity value
- ₩117B
- WACC
- 6.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩155
- −96.5%
- Base
- ₩4,862
- +9.4%
- Bull
- ₩14,133
- +218.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.1%).
Revenue growth
- 20.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 15.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 11.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 7.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 3.1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 2.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 11.8%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.26, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩215B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩46B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩52B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩7.9B
- Shares
- 24,054,799
- Share price
- ₩4,445
- Market cap
- ₩107B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩151B | ₩177B | ₩220B | ₩258B | ₩299B | ₩334B | ₩358B | ₩369B |
| Growth | 19.2% | 17.1% | 24.5% | 20.2% | 15.9% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩9.6B | ₩12B | ₩14B | ₩8B | ₩9.3B | ₩10B | ₩11B | ₩11B |
| EBIT margin | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩7B | ₩8.8B | ₩10B | ₩5.8B | ₩6.7B | ₩7.5B | ₩8.1B | ₩8.3B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩5.9B | ₩6.9B | ₩7.7B | ₩8.2B | ₩8.5B |
| − Capital spending | ₩6.6B | ₩2.5B | ₩6.3B | ₩7.5B | ₩8.7B | ₩9.7B | ₩10B | ₩11B |
| − Working capital | −₩17B | ₩10B | ₩8B | ₩5.1B | ₩4.8B | ₩4.1B | ₩2.9B | ₩1.3B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩866M | ₩86M | ₩1.4B | ₩3B | ₩4.8B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.940 | 0.884 | 0.831 | 0.781 | 0.734 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩815M | ₩76M | ₩1.2B | ₩2.4B | ₩3.5B |
Terminal value ₩153B, worth ₩113B today: 95% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩5,033 a share)Now 0.88× | ₩5,1911.03× | ₩7,7321.54× | ₩11,6202.31× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩468 a share)Now 9.49× | ₩4,92310.5× | ₩7,73716.5× | ₩22,19047.4× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩214 a share)Now 20.8× | ₩2,24710.5× | ₩3,53116.5× | ₩10,12847.4× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.4% | ₩5,375 | ₩5,889 | ₩6,555 | ₩7,449 | ₩8,717 |
| 5.9% | ₩4,728 | ₩5,114 | ₩5,598 | ₩6,224 | ₩7,064 |
| 6.4% | ₩4,204 | ₩4,500 | ₩4,862 | ₩5,316 | ₩5,903 |
| 6.9% | ₩3,771 | ₩4,002 | ₩4,279 | ₩4,619 | ₩5,044 |
| 7.4% | ₩3,407 | ₩3,590 | ₩3,806 | ₩4,065 | ₩4,382 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩107B
- Enterprise value
- ₩145B
- P/E
- 9.5×
- P/B
- 0.9×
- P/S
- 0.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 1.1%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩8,390 | ₩6,180 | ₩4,230 | ₩4,395 | ₩4,715 |
| Market cap | ₩202B | ₩149B | ₩102B | ₩106B | ₩113B |
| P/E | 18.1× | 9.1× | 27.5× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.7× | 1.4× | 1.1× | 1.1× | 1.2× |
| P/S | 0.9× | 0.8× | 0.7× | 0.8× | 1.0× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | 1.9% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tonymoly | 9.5× | 0.9× | 0.5× | — | 1.1% |
| APR | 24.5× | 16.3× | 4.6× | 24.1× | 1.8% |
| Amorepacific | 25.4× | 1.3× | 1.6× | — | 1.0% |
| LG H&H | — | 0.7× | 0.6× | 6.7× | 0.8% |
| Cosmax | 15.3× | 4.4× | 1.1× | 13.2× | 1.3% |
| Kolmar Korea | 14.7× | 2.7× | 0.9× | — | 0.7% |
| d'Alba Global | 16.6× | 7.2× | 2.8× | — | 1.8% |
| Similar companies (median) | 16.6× | 3.5× | 1.3× | 13.2× | 1.2% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Tonymoly / 토니모리 / 214420 / KRX:214420
Source: KRX statistical information