Tonymoly

214420 · KOSPI · ₩214420 · 토니모리

₩4,445▼ ₩30 (0.67%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩4,862

vs the current price (₩4,445)

Enterprise value
₩119B
Equity value
₩117B
WACC
6.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩155
−96.5%
Base
₩4,862
+9.4%
Bull
₩14,133
+218.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.1%).

Revenue growth

  • 20.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 15.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 11.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 11.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.26, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩215B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩46B
+ Stakes and investments
₩52B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩7.9B
Shares
24,054,799
Share price
₩4,445
Market cap
₩107B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩151B₩177B₩220B₩258B₩299B₩334B₩358B₩369B
Growth19.2%17.1%24.5%20.2%15.9%11.6%7.3%3.0%
EBIT₩9.6B₩12B₩14B₩8B₩9.3B₩10B₩11B₩11B
EBIT margin6.4%6.8%6.5%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%
After-tax EBIT₩7B₩8.8B₩10B₩5.8B₩6.7B₩7.5B₩8.1B₩8.3B
+ Depreciation———₩5.9B₩6.9B₩7.7B₩8.2B₩8.5B
− Capital spending₩6.6B₩2.5B₩6.3B₩7.5B₩8.7B₩9.7B₩10B₩11B
− Working capital−₩17B₩10B₩8B₩5.1B₩4.8B₩4.1B₩2.9B₩1.3B
Free cash flow———−₩866M₩86M₩1.4B₩3B₩4.8B
Discount factor———0.9400.8840.8310.7810.734
Present value———−₩815M₩76M₩1.2B₩2.4B₩3.5B

Terminal value ₩153B, worth ₩113B today: 95% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,033 a share)Now 0.88×₩5,1911.03×₩7,7321.54×₩11,6202.31×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩468 a share)Now 9.49×₩4,92310.5×₩7,73716.5×₩22,19047.4×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩214 a share)Now 20.8×₩2,24710.5×₩3,53116.5×₩10,12847.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.4%₩5,375₩5,889₩6,555₩7,449₩8,717
5.9%₩4,728₩5,114₩5,598₩6,224₩7,064
6.4%₩4,204₩4,500₩4,862₩5,316₩5,903
6.9%₩3,771₩4,002₩4,279₩4,619₩5,044
7.4%₩3,407₩3,590₩3,806₩4,065₩4,382

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩107B
Enterprise value
₩145B
P/E
9.5×
P/B
0.9×
P/S
0.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
1.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩8,390₩6,180₩4,230₩4,395₩4,715
Market cap₩202B₩149B₩102B₩106B₩113B
P/E18.1×9.1×27.5×——
P/B1.7×1.4×1.1×1.1×1.2×
P/S0.9×0.8×0.7×0.8×1.0×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.6%1.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Tonymoly9.5×0.9×0.5×—1.1%
APR24.5×16.3×4.6×24.1×1.8%
Amorepacific25.4×1.3×1.6×—1.0%
LG H&H—0.7×0.6×6.7×0.8%
Cosmax15.3×4.4×1.1×13.2×1.3%
Kolmar Korea14.7×2.7×0.9×—0.7%
d'Alba Global16.6×7.2×2.8×—1.8%
Similar companies (median)16.6×3.5×1.3×13.2×1.2%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Tonymoly / 토니모리 / 214420 / KRX:214420

Source: KRX statistical information