Samyang Packaging: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 37% After Latest Data Update

What happened

The only event is a change in our model output on 2026-10-22. The base case fell from ₩31,609 to ₩19,772 per share, a drop of 37%. The bear case moved from ₩10,898 to ₩4,365 and the bull case from ₩72,588 to ₩50,365. The discount rate moved from 5.8% to 6.0%. The model is still based on trailing twelve months to H1 2026.

No new filings or news explain the change. The data shows trailing free cash flow of about -₩2.9B, against ₩47.5B cited in the previous report. Trailing revenue is ₩432.9B, operating income ₩29.7B and net income ₩20.5B. Borrowings in the latest data are ₩154.0B, versus ₩195.2B cited before. Filings from August and September include securities registration and issuance documents, but their contents are not available to us, so we cannot link them to the change.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a modestly profitable packaging maker valued below book value, with free cash flow above net income. The latest data weakens that last point: trailing free cash flow is now slightly negative, below net income of ₩20.5B. The other elements are unchanged: P/B of 0.4, P/E of 7.3, a 5.0% dividend yield, a 6.9% operating margin and a 5.3% ROE. Leverage remains notable, with borrowings of ₩154.0B against cash of ₩41.0B. The earlier caution about the lack of a clear growth trend still applies.

What it changes for the valuation

Our updated model range is ₩4,365 bear, ₩19,772 base and ₩50,365 bull per share, compared with ₩10,898, ₩31,609 and ₩72,588 previously. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target. The share price of ₩9,950 is now above the bear case of ₩4,365 and below the base case. Previously it was below even the bear case. This is mainly because the model range itself shifted lower, not because the price moved. The range is still very wide, so the result is highly sensitive to inputs such as cash flow and the discount rate. Market multiples (P/E 7.3, P/B 0.4, P/S 0.3) are essentially unchanged.

Closing view

The update lowers the model's central estimate by more than a third, and the main change visible in the data is weaker trailing free cash flow. The company's profits, low multiples and dividend yield look much as before, while leverage and the absence of clear growth remain concerns. A range this wide, moving this much in two days, suggests the model is not a precise guide. Readers should treat it as one input and check the recent filings for details on funding and investment.

This is not a recommendation.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩4,365

-55%

Base

₩19,772

+103%

Bull

₩50,365

+417%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 6%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• [Corrected] New Facility Investment, etc.Sep 30, 2026
• Investor relations (IR) eventSep 29, 2026
• Corporate value-up planSep 29, 2026
• Securities Issuance Results ReportSep 4, 2026
• ProspectusSep 4, 2026
• Terms set: Securities registration statementSep 3, 2026
• Terms set: Securities registration statementAug 31, 2026
• Amended: Securities registration statementAug 31, 2026
• Disclosure on Large Business Group Status [Quarterly Disclosure (For Individual Company)]Aug 31, 2026
• Securities registration statementAug 25, 2026
• Half-year report (Jun 2026)Aug 14, 2026
• Matters Concerning Payment Amounts by Payment Method and Payment Period, and Dispute Mediation BodiesAug 14, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-20
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeSamyang Packaging: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 37% After Latest Data Update
2. Oct 20, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Samyang Packaging: Low Multiples, Thin Margins and a Wide Model Range