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HD Hyundai Energy Solutions · 322000 · Semiconductors

HD Hyundai Energy Solutions: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩31,727 After Discount Rate Change

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved +92% (₩16,559 → ₩31,727 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of fair value for HD Hyundai Energy Solutions rose 92% to a base of ₩31,727 per share from ₩16,559. The estimate is still far below the share price of ₩111,700, so the gap with the market narrows but does not close.

Written Oct 21, 2026 · Data as of Oct 20, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model estimate was updated. The base case moved from ₩16,559 to ₩31,727 per share, a rise of 92%. The bear case moved from ₩0 to ₩19,233, and the bull case from ₩67,673 to ₩54,642.

The model is still a 5-year discounted cash flow on the same trailing data to H1 2026. The discount rate moved from 4.7% to 7.5%. No new filings drove this change, and no filing excerpts or other recent events were provided. The data does not say why the model inputs changed beyond the rate shown.

The share price has fallen since the previous report, from ₩143,100 to ₩111,700 on 2026-10-20. It is down 12.0% over one month and 14.1% over three months, and still up 130.8% over one year.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report's thesis was a clear profit recovery that the data did not show to be stable, with a share price reflecting expectations the financials could not confirm. That is unchanged. The trailing figures are the same: operating margin of 15.8%, net income of ₩61.0B, ROE of 14.5% and free cash flow of ₩60.0B. Revenue fell 44.5% in 2023 and 22.7% in 2024, so the cyclical history still applies.

This update is a change in model output, not new evidence about the business. It does not confirm or weaken the recovery. Data on borrowings is partial, and EV/EBITDA is still not available.

What it changes for the valuation

A model estimate based on the assumptions shown gives ₩19,233 (bear), ₩31,727 (base) and ₩54,642 (bull) per share. The previous report had ₩0, ₩16,559 and ₩67,673. The range is much narrower, and the bear case is no longer zero. The bull case is lower than before.

Against the share price of ₩111,700, even the bull case is 51.1% below it. The base case is 71.6% below it. The previous gap was larger, but part of that narrowing comes from the lower share price.

At the current price the P/E is 20.5 (26.3 before), the P/B is 2.7 (3.4) and the P/S is 2.1 (2.7). Among peers with a P/E, SK hynix is at 5.5, DB HiTek 12.7, Hana Micron 14.7 and Jeju Semiconductor 9.9, so the company is still above all of them. The model is sensitive to the discount rate, as this change shows. It is not a target price.

Closing view

The model estimate moved sharply, but the reason is a changed input, mainly the discount rate, rather than new operating results. The company's recovery in profit and cash flow is real in the filed numbers, yet the market price still sits well above every case in the model. That suggests the market is assuming much stronger future cash flows than the trailing data shows, or using a lower return requirement. The data can't tell us which. Later filings will show whether the current earnings level holds.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩19,233
-80%
Base
₩31,727
-67%
Bull
₩54,642
-43%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.5%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeHD Hyundai Energy Solutions: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩31,727 After Discount Rate Change
  2. Oct 13, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (300 largest)HD Hyundai Energy Solutions: Profit Recovery and a Sharp Share Price Rise Meet a Model Estimate Far Below the Market Price

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information