Celemics: Loss-making KOSDAQ biotech with a sharp one-year share price rise and a model estimate far below the market price

Thesis

The data supports a picture of a small biotech whose share price has moved far ahead of its reported financials. Revenue has fallen from ₩8.7B in 2022 to ₩5.8B in 2025, and the company has posted operating losses in every year shown. The one-year gain of 223.4% and a 52-week range of ₩2,535 to ₩19,840 point to high price volatility. The current price is about 51.2% below the 52-week high.

What the data does not show is any explanation for the price moves: no news headlines are available. The 2024 net profit of ₩12.3B came alongside an operating loss of ₩1.9B, so it was not driven by operations. The company's own filings show a rights offering decision (amended 2026-09-14) and a grant of stock purchase options on 2026-10-06, which may matter for share count and dilution, but details are not in the data.

Business overview

Celemics is listed on KOSDAQ in the Biotech & Pharma sector. It was founded on 2010-11-29 and listed on 2020-08-21. It has 11,181,555 listed shares and a market capitalisation of about ₩108.1B. Co-CEOs are 박종갑 and 김효기. Revenue was ₩8.1B in 2021, ₩8.7B in 2022, ₩6.6B in 2023, ₩6.7B in 2024 and ₩5.8B in 2025. The data does not describe its products or business lines.

Financial analysis

These figures come from filed financial statements. For the trailing twelve months to H1 2026, revenue was ₩5.2B, operating income was -₩3.9B (margin -74.4%), and net income was -₩10.2B (margin -194.8%). Return on equity was -35.3%.

For 2025, revenue fell 14.2% to ₩5.8B, with an operating loss of ₩3.3B (margin -57.6%) and a net loss of ₩4.0B. In 2024 the operating margin was -28.3%, yet net income was ₩12.3B and ROE was 57.0%. Operating margins have ranged from -87.7% to -28.3% across 2021 to 2025.

The balance sheet shows cash of ₩37.1B against borrowings of ₩16.2B, and liabilities to equity of 60.5%. Free cash flow over the trailing period was -₩3.6B.

Valuation

On current data the price-to-earnings and EV/EBITDA ratios cannot be worked out because earnings are negative. Price-to-book is 3.6 and price-to-sales is 20.7. Enterprise value is about ₩87.3B. No dividend is paid. Year-end price-to-book was 1.3 in both 2024 and 2025, 3.0 in 2023, 3.5 in 2022 and 7.3 in 2021, so the current 3.6 is above the last two year-ends.

The listed peers are far larger: Samsung Biologics (P/E 34.2, P/B 8.1), Celltrion (28.6, 2.5), Alteogen (81.0, 29.1), Yuhan (26.3, 2.6) and SK biopharmaceuticals (15.0, 5.9). Celemics' P/B of 3.6 sits within the peer range, but those peers are profitable and much larger, so the comparison is limited.

The model, a 5-year discounted cash flow at a 7.4% rate based on trailing figures to H1 2026, gives a base estimate of ₩858 per share. The case labelled bear is ₩1,079 and the bull is ₩546, which is inverted relative to the labels, so the case ordering in the data should be treated with caution. All three are far below the ₩9,670 share price. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target or a reason to buy or sell.

Catalysts

• The rights offering decision, amended on 2026-09-14, could change the share count and the company's funding position.
• The grant of stock purchase options on 2026-10-06 is a recent filing that may be relevant to dilution and management incentives.
• A filing on 2026-09-01 titled a major management matter relevant to investors was published, though its contents are not in the data.
• Repeated insider shareholding reports in September and 5%+ holding reports in July and September show ownership changes worth watching.
• The next periodic report would show whether revenue and losses have moved from the H1 2026 trailing levels.

Risks

• Operating losses have occurred in every year from 2021 to 2025 and in the trailing period, with free cash flow of -₩3.6B.
• Revenue has declined from ₩8.7B in 2022 to ₩5.8B in 2025, and the trailing figure is ₩5.2B.
• The price has risen 223.4% in a year and is near 3.6 times book value, while the model estimate is well below the market price.
• A rights offering and option grants could dilute existing shareholders.
• Retail investors were net sellers of about ₩308M over 20 days and foreign ownership slipped from 1.3% to 1.1%, and no news headlines are available to explain recent moves.

Closing view

The evidence shows a small, loss-making company with shrinking revenue, a cash balance larger than its borrowings, and a share price that has risen sharply over the past year despite a recent monthly decline. The model estimate of ₩858 per share is far below the ₩9,670 price, which suggests the market is pricing in factors the reported numbers and the model's assumptions do not capture, though the data does not say what they are. Pending details on the rights offering and the lack of news coverage leave important questions open, so the data supports caution about interpreting the price rather than a firm conclusion on value.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩1,079

-87%

Base

₩858

-90%

Bull

₩546

-94%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.4%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• Notice on Grant of Stock Purchase OptionsOct 6, 2026
• Amended: Rights offering (paid-in capital increase) decisionSep 14, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportSep 10, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportSep 10, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportSep 3, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportSep 2, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportSep 2, 2026
• Major management matter relevant to investorsSep 1, 2026
• Half-year report (Jun 2026)Aug 14, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportJul 21, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportJul 16, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportJul 14, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-23
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 25, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Celemics: Loss-making KOSDAQ biotech with a sharp one-year share price rise and a model estimate far below the market price