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JONBUR Research · Update note

HD Hyundai Marine Solution · 443060 · Engineering services

HD Hyundai Marine Solution Shares Fall 16.2% in Five Days After Q3 Earnings

Why this report

Written after:

  • Big price moveShares down 16.2% over 5 trading days on 2.1× normal volumeOct 28, 2026

Shares fell 16.2% over five trading days to October 28, 2026, on 2.1x normal volume, following preliminary Q3 results that news reports described as below expectations. The move brings the price much closer to our model estimate, but it does not change the business picture in the previous report.

Written Oct 29, 2026 · Data as of Oct 28, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

From October 22 to October 28, 2026, the share price fell 16.2% on volume 2.1 times normal. The close on October 28 was ₩174,800, down 28.8% over one month and 30.9% over one year. The 52-week range is ₩158,000 to ₩287,000, so the stock sits near the low end. Market value is about ₩7.8T.

The main background is the preliminary consolidated earnings filed on October 26, which showed operating profit up 2% year on year. The filing excerpts were not available to us, so we cannot give Q3 profit figures. News reports attribute the weakness to exchange rates and acquisition costs, and one reports Q3 revenue up 26.7%. Several brokers reportedly cut target prices, while others said growth drivers remain intact. These are press views, not our conclusions.

Other items include a cash dividend decision on October 26, a news report of exchangeable bonds on the company's shares raising ₩588.7B by its parent group, and a rise in foreign ownership to 30.8% from 29.8% 60 days earlier. Short balance is 0.2%.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report, dated October 13, described a profitable business with a 17.2% TTM operating margin, 40.2% ROE and ₩267.6B of free cash flow, and flagged the ₩331.5B acquisition of Goltens New York and Goltens Oslo as raising execution risk. Operating profit growth of only 2% is slower than the growth rate that report assumed, and the reported acquisition costs link directly to the deal we flagged. One quarter is not enough to say the trend has changed, and the TTM figures above still reflect data to H1 2026. We have no Q3 margin or cash flow data, so we cannot test the thesis further. We would want to see whether the weaker profit is one-off or lasting.

What it changes for the valuation

Our updated model estimate is ₩101,317 (bear), ₩150,013 (base) and ₩229,979 (bull) per share, a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, using a 7.4% discount rate and TTM data to H1 2026. The previous report had ₩101,252, ₩123,805 and ₩154,793. The base and bull values are higher mainly because the discount rate is lower, 7.4% against 9.0% before, not because of new earnings information. The model still does not include the acquisition.

The share price of ₩174,800 now lies inside the range, above the base and below the bull value. Last time it was above the top of the range. Trading multiples are 23.4x earnings and 8.8x book, down from 29.6x and 11.1x. Peer multiples vary too widely to be a useful guide.

Closing view

The sharp fall has narrowed the gap between the price and our model estimate, but the estimate is sensitive to the discount rate, as the change from the last report shows. The evidence is mixed: earnings growth of 2% is a clear slowdown, brokers disagree on its meaning, and foreign ownership rose. Missing items are Q3 margin detail, the size of acquisition costs, and the target's earnings. Those would show whether the weakness is temporary.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩101,317
-42%
Base
₩150,013
-14%
Bull
₩229,979
+32%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.4%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 29, 2026Update noteBig price moveHD Hyundai Marine Solution Shares Fall 16.2% in Five Days After Q3 Earnings
  2. Oct 13, 2026Update noteM&A / restructuringHD Hyundai Marine Solution Agrees to Acquire Goltens New York and Goltens Oslo for ₩331.5B
  3. Oct 13, 2026InitiationHD Hyundai Marine Solution: High Margins and Returns, Premium Multiples, Pullback Over the Past Month

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information