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CJ Logistics

000120 · KOSPI · ₩000120 · CJ대한통운

₩64,000▼ ₩100 (0.16%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩304,928

vs the current price (₩64,000)

Enterprise value
₩11T
Equity value
₩7T
WACC
4.9%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 376% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩64,000, the model needs an operating margin of 2.2% every year (it uses 3.9%).
  • Or revenue growth −14.9 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 6.5× against a typical 9.4× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩304,928
+376.5%
Bull
₩1,164,643
+1,719.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.9%).

Revenue growth

  • 0.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 3.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.31, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩13T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩4T
+ Stakes and investments
₩263B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩239B
Shares
22,812,344
Share price
₩64,000
Market cap
₩1.5T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩12T₩12T₩12T₩13T₩13T₩13T₩14T₩14T
Growth−3.0%3.0%1.4%0.4%1.1%1.7%2.4%3.0%
EBIT₩480B₩531B₩508B₩503B₩508B₩517B₩529B₩545B
EBIT margin4.1%4.4%4.1%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%
After-tax EBIT₩348B₩385B₩368B₩364B₩368B₩375B₩384B₩395B
+ Depreciation———₩335B₩339B₩345B₩353B₩363B
− Capital spending₩318B₩239B₩610B₩412B₩417B₩424B₩434B₩447B
− Working capital−₩314B₩317B−₩135B₩1.8B₩5.1B₩8B₩11B₩15B
Free cash flow———₩285B₩285B₩287B₩291B₩297B
Discount factor———0.9530.9090.8660.8260.787
Present value———₩272B₩259B₩249B₩240B₩234B

Terminal value ₩12T, worth ₩9.6T today: 89% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩183,498 a share)Now 0.35×₩85,0880.46×₩102,5610.56×₩148,5850.81×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩9,773 a share)Now 6.55×₩74,6477.64×₩91,8609.40×₩151,36015.5×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩6,072 a share)Now 10.5×₩46,3777.64×₩57,0729.40×₩94,03915.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.9%₩329,231₩420,794₩560,430₩799,546₩1,303,435
4.4%₩253,933₩316,913₩406,069₩542,034₩774,863
4.9%₩197,965₩243,601₩304,928₩391,743₩524,138
5.4%₩154,742₩189,107₩233,546₩293,264₩377,803
5.9%₩120,362₩147,018₩180,483₩223,758₩281,913

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩1.5T
Enterprise value
₩3.6T
P/E
6.5×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
1.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩94,600₩84,400₩127,200₩93,700₩126,000
Market cap₩2.2T₩1.9T₩2.9T₩2.1T₩2.9T
P/E8.9×7.7×12.9×11.8×52.5×
P/B0.5×0.5×0.8×0.6×0.8×
P/S0.2×0.2×0.2×0.2×0.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.8%0.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
CJ Logistics6.5×0.3×0.1×—1.3%
HMM14.8×0.7×1.8×—3.1%
Hyundai Glovis8.8×1.2×0.4×—3.2%
Pan Ocean9.2×0.5×0.5×—2.6%
Korea Line3.4×0.2×0.5×—0.0%
Heung-A Shipping17.3×1.5×2.3×—0.0%
Chunil Express—46.6×6.4×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)9.2×1.0×1.2×—1.3%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: CJ Logistics / CJ대한통운 / 000120 / KRX:000120

Source: KRX statistical information