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Hanjin Logistics

002320 · KOSPI · ₩002320 · 한진

₩16,750▲ ₩240 (1.45%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩89,932

vs the current price (₩16,750)

Enterprise value
₩3.4T
Equity value
₩1.4T
WACC
4.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 437% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩16,750, the model needs an operating margin of 2.6% every year (it uses 3.7%).
  • Or revenue growth −8.5 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩89,932
+436.9%
Bull
₩571,944
+3,314.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Start from

Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.7%).

Revenue growth

  • 2.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 0.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.12, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩3.2T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩2T
+ Stakes and investments
₩126B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩124B
Shares
15,518,616
Share price
₩16,750
Market cap
₩260B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩2.8T₩3T₩3.1T₩3.3T₩3.4T₩3.5T₩3.6T₩3.7T
Growth−1.5%7.4%1.6%2.5%2.6%2.7%2.9%3.0%
EBIT₩123B₩100B₩112B₩123B₩126B₩129B₩133B₩137B
EBIT margin4.4%3.3%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%
After-tax EBIT₩89B₩73B₩81B₩89B₩91B₩94B₩97B₩99B
+ Depreciation———₩100B₩102B₩105B₩108B₩111B
− Capital spending₩159B₩90B₩75B₩123B₩126B₩129B₩133B₩137B
− Working capital₩23B₩58B−₩23B₩81M₩86M₩92M₩101M₩108M
Free cash flow———₩66B₩67B₩69B₩71B₩73B
Discount factor———0.9580.9180.8790.8420.807
Present value———₩63B₩62B₩61B₩60B₩59B

Terminal value ₩3.8T, worth ₩3T today: 91% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩90,591 a share)Now 0.18×₩18,8210.21×₩20,4680.23×₩31,5100.35×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩501 a share)Now 33.4×₩3,2536.49×₩6,32612.6×₩9,60319.2×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.4%₩98,253₩153,693₩249,223₩452,959—
3.9%₩58,533₩94,043₩148,411₩242,096₩441,895
4.4%₩30,573₩55,105₩89,932₩143,255₩235,138
4.9%₩9,830₩27,695₩51,758₩85,918₩138,220
5.4%—₩7,359₩24,884₩48,488₩81,998

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩260B
Enterprise value
₩1.3T
P/E
—
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.6%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩19,710₩19,010₩24,850₩21,050₩30,100
Market cap₩306B₩295B₩386B₩327B₩467B
P/E——14.8×6.9×2.9×
P/B0.2×0.2×0.3×0.2×0.4×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×0.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield3.0%3.2%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hanjin Logistics—0.2×0.1×—3.6%
HMM14.7×0.7×1.8×—3.1%
Hyundai Glovis9.2×1.3×0.5×—3.1%
Pan Ocean9.0×0.5×0.5×—2.6%
CJ Logistics6.6×0.4×0.1×—1.2%
Korea Line3.4×0.2×0.5×—0.0%
Heung-A Shipping17.1×1.4×2.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)9.1×0.6×0.5×—1.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hanjin Logistics / 한진 / 002320 / KRX:002320

Source: KRX statistical information