Hankook Cosmetics Manufacturing한국화장품제조
003350 · KOSPI · ₩003350 · 한국화장품제조
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩21,130
vs the current price (₩15,010)
- Enterprise value
- ₩470B
- Equity value
- ₩479B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 41% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩15,010, the model needs an operating margin of 8.5% every year (it uses 11.5%).
- Or revenue growth −9.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- Margins ranged from −1.1% to 17.8% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- Today's P/E is 11.4× against a typical 17.6× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩12,869
- −14.3%
- Base
- ₩21,130
- +40.8%
- Bull
- ₩34,976
- +133.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (11.5%).
Revenue growth
- 21.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 16.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 12.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 7.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 11.5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 1%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 1.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 20.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.23, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩216B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩1.5B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩6.9B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 22,660,000
- Share price
- ₩15,010
- Market cap
- ₩340B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩109B | ₩167B | ₩185B | ₩262B | ₩305B | ₩342B | ₩368B | ₩379B |
| Growth | 5.3% | 53.2% | 10.2% | 21.1% | 16.6% | 12.1% | 7.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩9B | ₩27B | ₩33B | ₩30B | ₩35B | ₩39B | ₩42B | ₩44B |
| EBIT margin | 8.3% | 15.9% | 17.8% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩6.5B | ₩19B | ₩24B | ₩22B | ₩25B | ₩29B | ₩31B | ₩32B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩2.6B | ₩3.1B | ₩3.4B | ₩3.7B | ₩3.8B |
| − Capital spending | ₩633M | ₩3.5B | ₩2.3B | ₩3.4B | ₩4B | ₩4.5B | ₩4.8B | ₩4.9B |
| − Working capital | −₩4.2B | ₩3.4B | ₩62B | ₩9.3B | ₩8.8B | ₩7.5B | ₩5.2B | ₩2.2B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩12B | ₩16B | ₩20B | ₩24B | ₩28B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.751 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩11B | ₩14B | ₩16B | ₩18B | ₩20B |
Terminal value ₩560B, worth ₩392B today: 83% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩5,380 a share)Now 2.79× | ₩10,6431.98× | ₩14,9432.78× | ₩19,8163.68× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,312 a share)Now 11.4× | ₩10,9718.36× | ₩23,13817.6× | ₩60,14545.8× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩584 a share)Now 25.7× | ₩4,8848.36× | ₩10,30117.6× | ₩26,77745.8× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩22,354 | ₩24,071 | ₩26,175 | ₩28,815 | ₩32,225 |
| 6.9% | ₩20,352 | ₩21,734 | ₩23,394 | ₩25,429 | ₩27,982 |
| 7.4% | ₩18,664 | ₩19,794 | ₩21,130 | ₩22,736 | ₩24,704 |
| 7.9% | ₩17,224 | ₩18,160 | ₩19,252 | ₩20,544 | ₩22,097 |
| 8.4% | ₩15,980 | ₩16,764 | ₩17,669 | ₩18,725 | ₩19,974 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩340B
- Enterprise value
- ₩339B
- P/E
- 11.4×
- P/B
- 2.8×
- P/S
- 1.6×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.4%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩9,780 | ₩10,340 | ₩4,680 | ₩5,710 | ₩5,160 |
| Market cap | ₩222B | ₩234B | ₩106B | ₩129B | ₩117B |
| P/E | 8.1× | 10.1× | 14.6× | 32.1× | — |
| P/B | 2.1× | 3.2× | 2.0× | 2.7× | 2.7× |
| P/S | 1.2× | 1.4× | 1.0× | 1.2× | 1.7× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | 0.4% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hankook Cosmetics Manufacturing | 11.4× | 2.8× | 1.6× | — | 0.4% |
| APR | 25.0× | 16.7× | 4.7× | 24.7× | 1.8% |
| Amorepacific | 25.5× | 1.3× | 1.6× | — | 1.0% |
| LG H&H | — | 0.7× | 0.6× | 6.9× | 0.8% |
| Cosmax | 16.0× | 4.6× | 1.1× | 13.7× | 1.3% |
| Kolmar Korea | 15.0× | 2.8× | 0.9× | — | 0.7% |
| d'Alba Global | 17.0× | 7.3× | 2.9× | — | 1.8% |
| Similar companies (median) | 17.0× | 3.7× | 1.4× | 13.7× | 1.1% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Hankook Cosmetics Manufacturing / 한국화장품제조 / 003350 / KRX:003350
Source: KRX statistical information