KOSPI · 003490 · Airlines · ₩003490

Korean Air Lines대한항공

003490 · KOSPI · ₩003490 · 대한항공

₩26,100▲ ₩550 (2.15%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩201,455

vs the current price (₩26,100)

Enterprise value: ₩94T
Equity value: ₩74T
WACC: 5.2%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 672% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩26,100, the model needs an operating margin of 4.0% every year (it uses 10.8%).
Or revenue growth −24.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩29T, operating profit ₩699B (2.4% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩29T, operating profit ₩2T (6.9% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Margins ranged from 4.4% to 20.1% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩83,519; +220.0%
Base: ₩201,455; +671.9%
Bull: ₩450,323; +1,625.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.8%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 121.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 216.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 312.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 47.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin10.8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation10.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending11.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital-10%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
Beta0.64
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.47, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩26T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩19T
+ Stakes and investments: ₩210B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩253B
Shares: 369,331,400; incl. 1,110,791 preferred
Share price: ₩26,100
Market cap: ₩9.6T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩16T	₩18T	₩25T	₩32T	₩37T	₩42T	₩45T	₩47T
Growth	14.3%	10.9%	41.2%	21.4%	16.8%	12.2%	7.6%	3.0%
EBIT	₩1.8T	₩2.1T	₩1.1T	₩3.5T	₩4T	₩4.5T	₩4.9T	₩5T
EBIT margin	11.1%	11.8%	4.4%	10.8%	10.8%	10.8%	10.8%	10.8%
After-tax EBIT	₩1.3T	₩1.5T	₩807B	₩2.5T	₩2.9T	₩3.3T	₩3.5T	₩3.6T
+ Depreciation	₩1.7T	₩1.7T	₩2.7T	₩3.3T	₩3.9T	₩4.3T	₩4.7T	₩4.8T
− Capital spending	₩8.7B	₩2.9T	₩4.3T	₩3.6T	₩4.2T	₩4.7T	₩5T	₩5.2T
− Working capital	−₩6.9T	−₩3.6T	₩2.3T	−₩565B	−₩539B	−₩457B	−₩319B	−₩136B
Free cash flow	₩9.8T	₩3.9T	−₩3T	₩2.8T	₩3.2T	₩3.4T	₩3.5T	₩3.4T
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.950	0.903	0.858	0.815	0.775
Present value	—	—	—	₩2.7T	₩2.9T	₩2.9T	₩2.9T	₩2.6T

Terminal value ₩103T, worth ₩80T today: 85% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩28,464 a share)Now 0.92×	₩22,5610.79×	₩25,8300.91×	₩44,3461.56×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
4.2%	₩207,686	₩251,296	₩314,458	₩414,096	₩594,580
4.7%	₩173,019	₩204,545	₩247,625	₩310,019	₩408,445
5.2%	₩146,535	₩170,310	₩201,455	₩244,013	₩305,652
5.7%	₩125,641	₩144,157	₩167,646	₩198,415	₩240,459
6.2%	₩108,735	₩123,524	₩141,817	₩165,024	₩195,423

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩9.6T
Enterprise value: ₩15T
P/E: —
P/B: 0.9×
P/S: 0.4×
EV/EBITDA: 4.4×
Dividend yield: 2.9%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩22,550	₩22,600	₩23,900	₩22,950	₩29,350
Market cap	₩8.3T	₩8.3T	₩8.8T	₩8.5T	₩11T
P/E	10.6×	6.3×	8.3×	4.9×	18.7×
P/B	0.8×	0.8×	0.9×	0.9×	1.6×
P/S	0.3×	0.5×	0.5×	0.6×	1.2×
EV/EBITDA	2.3×	2.1×	2.0×	3.0×	5.1×
Dividend yield	3.3%	3.3%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Korean Air Lines	—	0.9×	0.4×	4.4×	2.9%
Asiana Airlines	—	10.8×	0.2×	—	0.0%
Jejuair	—	1.9×	0.2×	—	0.0%
JIN Air	—	1.6×	0.2×	—	0.0%
Air Busan	—	2.9×	0.3×	—	0.0%
Trinity Airways	—	2.4×	0.1×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	—	2.4×	0.2×	—	0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Korean Air Lines / 대한항공 / 003490 / KRX:003490

Source: KRX statistical information