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Dongbang Transport & Logistics

004140 · KOSPI · ₩004140 · 동방

₩1,500▼ ₩13 (0.86%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩15,766

vs the current price (₩1,500)

Enterprise value
₩1T
Equity value
₩756B
WACC
4.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 951% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,500, the model needs an operating margin of 1.8% every year (it uses 4.0%).
  • Or revenue growth −23.8 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 10.2× against a typical 8.3× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩15,766
+951.1%
Bull
₩57,935
+3,762.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 6.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 4.2%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.21, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩973B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩297B
+ Stakes and investments
₩48B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩2.7B
Shares
47,971,766
Share price
₩1,500
Market cap
₩72B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩768B₩872B₩916B₩1T₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1.2T₩1.2T
Growth1.2%13.5%5.0%6.5%5.6%4.7%3.9%3.0%
EBIT₩35B₩39B₩32B₩41B₩44B₩46B₩48B₩49B
EBIT margin4.6%4.5%3.5%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%
After-tax EBIT₩26B₩28B₩23B₩30B₩32B₩33B₩35B₩36B
+ Depreciation———₩38B₩41B₩42B₩44B₩45B
− Capital spending₩40B₩59B₩18B₩49B₩51B₩54B₩56B₩58B
− Working capital₩61B−₩7.2B₩49B₩2.7B₩2.4B₩2.2B₩1.9B₩1.5B
Free cash flow———₩17B₩18B₩20B₩21B₩22B
Discount factor———0.9560.9130.8730.8340.797
Present value———₩16B₩17B₩17B₩17B₩17B

Terminal value ₩1.2T, worth ₩924B today: 92% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,709 a share)Now 0.40×₩2,2750.61×₩2,8960.78×₩4,6301.25×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩147 a share)Now 10.2×₩7004.75×₩1,2218.30×₩1,75111.9×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩109 a share)Now 13.8×₩5174.75×₩9028.30×₩1,29411.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.6%₩16,911₩21,576₩29,082₩43,166₩79,228
4.1%₩13,238₩16,331₩20,867₩28,164₩41,857
4.6%₩10,577₩12,759₩15,766₩20,176₩27,272
5.1%₩8,561₩10,172₩12,293₩15,217₩19,505
5.6%₩6,982₩8,212₩9,777₩11,840₩14,683

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩72B
Enterprise value
₩369B
P/E
10.2×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,555₩2,165₩2,060₩2,645₩4,025
Market cap₩123B₩104B₩99B₩127B₩193B
P/E7.1×5.1×6.7×155.2×—
P/B0.7×0.7×0.7×1.0×1.5×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.1×0.2×0.3×
EV/EBITDA———5.5×8.7×
Dividend yield1.2%0.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Dongbang Transport & Logistics10.2×0.4×0.1×—2.0%
HMM15.4×0.8×1.9×—3.0%
Hyundai Glovis8.9×1.3×0.4×—3.2%
Pan Ocean9.2×0.5×0.5×—2.6%
CJ Logistics6.8×0.4×0.1×—1.2%
Korea Line3.5×0.3×0.5×—0.0%
Heung-A Shipping17.4×1.5×2.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)9.1×0.6×0.5×—1.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Dongbang Transport & Logistics / 동방 / 004140 / KRX:004140

Source: KRX statistical information