Sebang세방
004360 · KOSPI · ₩004360 · 세방
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩12,177
vs the current price (₩12,890)
- Enterprise value
- ₩268B
- Equity value
- ₩278B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩12,177
- −5.5%
- Bull
- ₩35,824
- +177.9%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.3%).
Revenue growth
- -1.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2.3%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.5%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 3.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 4.8%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.24, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1.2T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩9.7B
- Shares
- 22,804,853
- incl. 3,689,250 preferred
- Share price
- ₩12,890
- Market cap
- ₩278B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.1T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T |
| Growth | −11.5% | 20.3% | −9.6% | −1.3% | −0.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩29B | ₩24B | ₩27B | ₩27B | ₩27B | ₩27B | ₩28B | ₩29B |
| EBIT margin | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩21B | ₩18B | ₩20B | ₩20B | ₩20B | ₩20B | ₩20B | ₩21B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩30B | ₩29B | ₩30B | ₩30B | ₩31B |
| − Capital spending | ₩32B | ₩32B | ₩51B | ₩37B | ₩37B | ₩37B | ₩38B | ₩39B |
| − Working capital | ₩19B | −₩51B | −₩21B | −₩747M | −₩113M | ₩509M | ₩1.1B | ₩1.7B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩12B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.751 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩12B | ₩11B | ₩9.8B | ₩8.9B | ₩8.1B |
Terminal value ₩311B, worth ₩218B today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩54,800 a share)Now 0.24× | ₩12,8900.24× | ₩14,9220.27× | ₩21,9700.40× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩2,723 a share)Now 4.73× | ₩7,3132.69× | ₩11,4674.21× | ₩16,6796.13× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩3,932 a share)Now 3.28× | ₩10,5612.69× | ₩16,5604.21× | ₩24,0886.13× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩12,954 | ₩13,856 | ₩14,961 | ₩16,347 | ₩18,136 |
| 6.9% | ₩11,838 | ₩12,560 | ₩13,426 | ₩14,488 | ₩15,818 |
| 7.4% | ₩10,898 | ₩11,484 | ₩12,177 | ₩13,009 | ₩14,028 |
| 7.9% | ₩10,095 | ₩10,578 | ₩11,140 | ₩11,805 | ₩12,603 |
| 8.4% | ₩9,402 | ₩9,804 | ₩10,267 | ₩10,806 | ₩11,444 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩246B
- Enterprise value
- ₩203B
- P/E
- 4.0×
- P/B
- 0.2×
- P/S
- 0.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 2.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩14,420 | ₩11,160 | ₩12,230 | ₩29,800 | ₩11,950 |
| Market cap | ₩276B | ₩213B | ₩234B | ₩570B | ₩228B |
| P/E | 4.2× | 2.5× | 3.4× | 5.4× | 4.4× |
| P/B | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.6× | 0.3× |
| P/S | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.4× | 0.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 2.1% | 2.7% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebang | 4.0× | 0.2× | 0.2× | — | 2.3% |
| HMM | 14.6× | 0.7× | 1.8× | — | 3.2% |
| Hyundai Glovis | 9.1× | 1.3× | 0.4× | — | 3.1% |
| Pan Ocean | 9.0× | 0.5× | 0.5× | — | 2.6% |
| CJ Logistics | 6.6× | 0.4× | 0.1× | — | 1.2% |
| Korea Line | 3.4× | 0.2× | 0.5× | — | 0.0% |
| Heung-A Shipping | 17.4× | 1.5× | 2.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 9.1× | 0.6× | 0.5× | — | 1.9% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Sebang / 세방 / 004360 / KRX:004360
Source: KRX statistical information