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GC

005250 · KOSPI · ₩005250 · 녹십자홀딩스

₩9,030▼ ₩60 (0.66%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
₩338B
Equity value
−₩1.9T
WACC
4.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩9,030, the model needs an operating margin of 4.6% every year (it uses 1.4%).
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
₩20,965
+132.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.4%).

Revenue growth

  • 5.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 1.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 5.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 8.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.26, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩2.5T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩1.6T
+ Stakes and investments
₩197B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩874B
Shares
47,874,200
incl. 845,990 preferred
Share price
₩9,030
Market cap
₩439B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩2.1T₩2.2T₩2.5T₩2.6T₩2.8T₩2.9T₩3T₩3.1T
Growth−1.0%7.1%11.2%5.6%5.0%4.3%3.7%3.0%
EBIT−₩16B−₩11B₩36B₩37B₩39B₩40B₩42B₩43B
EBIT margin−0.8%−0.5%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%
After-tax EBIT−₩12B−₩7.8B₩26B₩27B₩28B₩29B₩30B₩31B
+ Depreciation———₩105B₩110B₩115B₩119B₩123B
− Capital spending₩133B₩58B₩150B₩134B₩141B₩147B₩152B₩157B
− Working capital−₩327B₩1T−₩468B₩12B₩11B₩10B₩9.3B₩7.8B
Free cash flow———−₩14B−₩14B−₩13B−₩12B−₩10B
Discount factor———0.9540.9110.8690.8300.792
Present value———−₩14B−₩13B−₩11B−₩9.8B−₩8.2B

Terminal value ₩496B, worth ₩393B today: 116% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩18,139 a share)Now 0.50×₩11,8140.65×₩13,7550.76×₩18,8001.04×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩129 a share)Now 69.9×₩7665.93×₩3,02323.4×₩7,47757.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.8%—————
4.3%—————
4.8%—————
5.3%—————
5.8%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩425B
Enterprise value
₩1.9T
P/E
—
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩15,920₩17,320₩16,350₩17,000₩27,150
Market cap₩749B₩815B₩769B₩799B₩1.3T
P/E—33.9×—24.4×23.1×
P/B0.8×0.8×0.8×0.8×1.2×
P/S0.3×0.4×0.4×0.4×0.7×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield1.9%2.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
GC—0.5×0.2×—3.3%
S-123.7×2.1×1.3×—0.0%
Cheil Worldwide9.9×1.4×0.5×—6.5%
Doosan Tesna54.8×4.2×5.7×—0.2%
Lotte Tour Development15.6×2.2×1.1×—0.0%
Soulbrain Holdings1.3×0.4×1.2×—1.3%
Innocean Worldwide5.4×0.6×0.3×—6.8%
Similar companies (median)12.8×1.7×1.2×—0.7%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: GC / 녹십자홀딩스 / 005250 / KRX:005250

Source: KRX statistical information