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Korea Line

005880 · KOSPI · ₩005880 · 대한해운

₩1,914▲ ₩72 (3.91%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩6,770

vs the current price (₩1,914)

Enterprise value
₩3.5T
Equity value
₩2.2T
WACC
5.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 254% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,914, the model needs an operating margin of 10.9% every year (it uses 17.7%).
  • Or revenue growth −12.4 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 3.5× against a typical 3.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩2,112
+10.4%
Base
₩6,770
+253.7%
Bull
₩16,889
+782.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (17.7%).

Revenue growth

  • -7.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -4.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 17.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 12.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 15.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 19.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.29, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.2T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩1.2T
+ Stakes and investments
₩132B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩280B
Shares
322,747,340
Share price
₩1,914
Market cap
₩618B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.4T₩1.7T₩1.3T₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1T₩1T₩1.1T
Growth−13.3%25.0%−26.9%−7.5%−4.9%−2.2%0.4%3.0%
EBIT₩250B₩329B₩207B₩197B₩188B₩183B₩184B₩190B
EBIT margin17.9%18.8%16.2%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%
After-tax EBIT₩181B₩238B₩150B₩143B₩136B₩133B₩134B₩138B
+ Depreciation———₩135B₩128B₩125B₩126B₩130B
− Capital spending₩434B₩49B₩149B₩169B₩161B₩158B₩158B₩163B
− Working capital−₩24B₩381B−₩306B−₩18B−₩11B−₩4.6B₩825M₩6.2B
Free cash flow———₩126B₩114B₩106B₩100B₩98B
Discount factor———0.9510.9050.8610.8190.779
Present value———₩120B₩103B₩91B₩82B₩76B

Terminal value ₩3.9T, worth ₩3.1T today: 87% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩7,517 a share)Now 0.25×₩1,9360.26×₩2,6960.36×₩4,6040.61×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩549 a share)Now 3.49×₩1,6483.00×₩2,1163.85×₩4,5978.37×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩661 a share)Now 2.89×₩1,9853.00×₩2,5483.85×₩5,5368.37×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.1%₩7,353₩9,234₩12,003₩16,487₩24,999
4.6%₩5,735₩7,058₩8,885₩11,577₩15,936
5.1%₩4,511₩5,485₩6,770₩8,547₩11,163
5.6%₩3,553₩4,295₩5,241₩6,491₩8,217
6.1%₩2,783₩3,363₩4,084₩5,004₩6,219

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩618B
Enterprise value
₩1.8T
P/E
3.5×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,757₩1,674₩2,155₩2,175₩2,640
Market cap₩567B₩540B₩696B₩702B₩852B
P/E3.1×3.3×10.2×4.5×3.5×
P/B0.3×0.3×0.4×0.5×0.7×
P/S0.4×0.3×0.5×0.4×0.7×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Korea Line3.5×0.3×0.5×—0.0%
HMM15.4×0.8×1.9×—3.0%
Hyundai Glovis8.9×1.3×0.4×—3.2%
Pan Ocean9.2×0.5×0.5×—2.6%
CJ Logistics6.8×0.4×0.1×—1.2%
Heung-A Shipping17.4×1.5×2.3×—0.0%
Korea Airport Service5.9×0.6×0.4×2.4×1.2%
Similar companies (median)9.1×0.7×0.5×2.4×1.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Korea Line / 대한해운 / 005880 / KRX:005880

Source: KRX statistical information