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Kctc

009070 · KOSPI · ₩009070 · KCTC

₩3,690▼ ₩110 (2.89%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩23,883

vs the current price (₩3,690)

Enterprise value
₩988B
Equity value
₩717B
WACC
4.9%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 547% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,690, the model needs an operating margin of 2.0% every year (it uses 4.2%).
  • Or revenue growth −20.0 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 3.9× against a typical 44.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩125
−96.6%
Base
₩23,883
+547.2%
Bull
₩82,296
+2,130.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.2%).

Revenue growth

  • 2.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.29, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.1T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩305B
+ Stakes and investments
₩61B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩28B
Shares
30,000,000
Share price
₩3,690
Market cap
₩111B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩823B₩882B₩987B₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1.2T₩1.2T
Growth−10.6%7.2%11.9%2.3%2.5%2.7%2.8%3.0%
EBIT₩37B₩39B₩39B₩45B₩47B₩48B₩49B₩51B
EBIT margin4.5%4.4%3.9%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%
After-tax EBIT₩27B₩28B₩28B₩33B₩34B₩35B₩36B₩37B
+ Depreciation———₩38B₩39B₩40B₩41B₩42B
− Capital spending₩43B₩44B₩28B₩47B₩48B₩49B₩50B₩52B
− Working capital−₩6.7B₩19B₩20B₩974M₩1.1B₩1.2B₩1.3B₩1.4B
Free cash flow———₩23B₩24B₩24B₩25B₩26B
Discount factor———0.9540.9090.8670.8270.788
Present value———₩22B₩22B₩21B₩21B₩20B

Terminal value ₩1.1T, worth ₩882B today: 89% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩11,117 a share)Now 0.33×₩4,2870.39×₩5,5830.50×₩8,2510.74×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩950 a share)Now 3.89×₩4,0104.22×₩42,65944.9×₩76,79680.9×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,341 a share)Now 2.75×₩5,6604.22×₩60,20944.9×₩108,39180.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.9%₩25,593₩32,021₩41,873₩58,877₩95,282
4.4%₩20,321₩24,726₩30,983₩40,570₩57,120
4.9%₩16,413₩19,596₩23,883₩29,973₩39,304
5.4%₩13,400₩15,792₩18,890₩23,063₩28,990
5.9%₩11,008₩12,860₩15,188₩18,203₩22,265

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩111B
Enterprise value
₩308B
P/E
3.9×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩6,270₩3,915₩3,895₩4,550₩6,220
Market cap₩188B₩117B₩117B₩137B₩187B
P/E8.9×4.6×66.4×75.5×192.8×
P/B0.6×0.4×0.4×0.5×0.8×
P/S0.2×0.1×0.1×0.1×0.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%0.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Kctc3.9×0.3×0.1×—0.0%
HMM14.7×0.7×1.8×—3.1%
Hyundai Glovis9.2×1.3×0.5×—3.1%
Pan Ocean9.0×0.5×0.5×—2.6%
CJ Logistics6.6×0.4×0.1×—1.2%
Korea Line3.4×0.2×0.5×—0.0%
Heung-A Shipping17.1×1.4×2.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)9.1×0.6×0.5×—1.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Kctc / KCTC / 009070 / KRX:009070

Source: KRX statistical information