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Hansol Logistics

009180 · KOSPI · ₩009180 · 한솔로지스틱스

₩2,715▲ ₩25 (0.93%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩8,273

vs the current price (₩2,715)

Enterprise value
₩255B
Equity value
₩233B
WACC
6.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 205% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,715, the model needs an operating margin of 1.4% every year (it uses 3.3%).
  • Or revenue growth −27.4 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 6.5× against a typical 4.7× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩1,852
−31.8%
Base
₩8,273
+204.7%
Bull
₩20,589
+658.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Start from

Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.3%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.17, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩670B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩23B
+ Stakes and investments
₩1.1B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩278M
Shares
28,155,825
Share price
₩2,715
Market cap
₩76B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩727B₩687B₩675B₩603B₩563B₩543B₩542B₩558B
Growth−28.4%−5.4%−1.8%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩26B₩17B₩21B₩20B₩19B₩18B₩18B₩18B
EBIT margin3.6%2.4%3.1%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%
After-tax EBIT₩19B₩12B₩15B₩14B₩13B₩13B₩13B₩13B
+ Depreciation———₩3.6B₩3.4B₩3.3B₩3.3B₩3.3B
− Capital spending₩7.4B₩4.9B₩2.9B₩4.2B₩3.9B₩3.8B₩3.8B₩3.9B
− Working capital₩17B₩14B₩18B−₩5.4B−₩3.2B−₩1.6B−₩87M₩1.3B
Free cash flow———₩19B₩16B₩14B₩13B₩11B
Discount factor———0.9380.8790.8250.7730.725
Present value———₩18B₩14B₩12B₩9.7B₩8.3B

Terminal value ₩266B, worth ₩193B today: 76% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,385 a share)Now 0.50×₩2,6520.49×₩3,1530.59×₩6,3961.19×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩417 a share)Now 6.51×₩1,4193.40×₩1,9804.75×₩2,8366.80×
P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩813 a share)Now 3.34×₩2,7673.40×₩3,8624.75×₩5,5316.80×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.6%₩8,850₩9,634₩10,631₩11,944₩13,750
6.1%₩7,950₩8,557₩9,310₩10,268₩11,529
6.6%₩7,208₩7,690₩8,273₩8,996₩9,916
7.1%₩6,587₩6,975₩7,437₩7,997₩8,691
7.6%₩6,059₩6,376₩6,748₩7,191₩7,728

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩76B
Enterprise value
₩62B
P/E
6.5×
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,765₩2,080₩2,450₩2,820₩3,930
Market cap₩78B₩59B₩69B₩79B₩111B
P/E4.9×6.7×3.7×3.3×4.7×
P/B0.5×0.5×0.6×0.8×1.4×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%0.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hansol Logistics6.5×0.5×0.1×—0.0%
HMM14.6×0.7×1.8×—3.2%
Hyundai Glovis9.1×1.3×0.4×—3.1%
Pan Ocean9.0×0.5×0.5×—2.6%
CJ Logistics6.6×0.4×0.1×—1.2%
Korea Line3.4×0.2×0.5×—0.0%
Heung-A Shipping17.4×1.5×2.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)9.1×0.6×0.5×—1.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hansol Logistics / 한솔로지스틱스 / 009180 / KRX:009180

Source: KRX statistical information