KOSPI · 009270 · Textiles & Apparel · ₩009270

Shinwon신원

009270 · KOSPI · ₩009270 · 신원

₩1,027▲ ₩5 (0.49%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,787

vs the current price (₩1,027)

Enterprise value: ₩219B
Equity value: ₩205B
WACC: 6.9%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 74% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩1,027, the model needs an operating margin of 2.0% every year (it uses 2.5%).
In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Today's P/E is 26.7× against a typical 19.1× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: ₩1,787; +74.0%
Bull: ₩7,225; +603.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.5%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 13.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 23.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 33.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 43%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin2.5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation1.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending3.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital17.1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.11, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩1.1T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩16B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩2.1B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares: 114,770,393
Share price: ₩1,027
Market cap: ₩118B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩834B	₩940B	₩1.1T	₩1.2T	₩1.2T	₩1.3T	₩1.3T	₩1.3T
Growth	−16.2%	12.6%	16.3%	3.1%	3.1%	3.1%	3.0%	3.0%
EBIT	₩23B	₩25B	₩19B	₩29B	₩30B	₩31B	₩32B	₩33B
EBIT margin	2.8%	2.7%	1.7%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
After-tax EBIT	₩17B	₩18B	₩14B	₩21B	₩22B	₩23B	₩23B	₩24B
+ Depreciation	₩9.6B	₩13B	₩15B	₩15B	₩16B	₩16B	₩17B	₩17B
− Capital spending	₩38B	₩37B	₩23B	₩41B	₩43B	₩44B	₩45B	₩47B
− Working capital	−₩16B	₩2.7B	−₩165B	₩6.1B	₩6.2B	₩6.4B	₩6.4B	₩6.6B
Free cash flow	₩5.4B	−₩8.4B	₩171B	−₩11B	−₩11B	−₩11B	−₩11B	−₩12B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.935	0.875	0.818	0.765	0.716
Present value	—	—	—	−₩9.9B	−₩9.6B	−₩9.2B	−₩8.7B	−₩8.4B

Terminal value ₩370B, worth ₩265B today: 121% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩1,994 a share)Now 0.52×	₩1,2400.62×	₩1,4430.72×	₩2,0361.02×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩39 a share)Now 26.7×	₩2717.04×	₩73319.1×	₩1,75945.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
5.9%	₩2,169	₩2,319	₩2,506	₩2,746	₩3,065
6.4%	₩1,868	₩1,975	₩2,105	₩2,265	₩2,471
6.9%	₩1,620	₩1,696	₩1,787	₩1,897	₩2,033
7.4%	₩1,413	₩1,467	₩1,531	₩1,606	₩1,696
7.9%	₩1,237	₩1,276	₩1,320	₩1,371	₩1,430

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩118B
Enterprise value: ₩134B
P/E: 26.7×
P/B: 0.5×
P/S: 0.1×
EV/EBITDA: 3.2×
Dividend yield: 4.9%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩1,532	₩1,467	₩1,425	₩1,545	₩2,920
Market cap	₩176B	₩168B	₩164B	₩177B	₩335B
P/E	—	26.7×	27.6×	9.8×	27.6×
P/B	0.8×	0.7×	0.7×	0.8×	1.5×
P/S	0.2×	0.2×	0.2×	0.2×	0.4×
EV/EBITDA	6.2×	9.7×	10.0×	7.5×	16.3×
Dividend yield	3.3%	4.8%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Shinwon	26.7×	0.5×	0.1×	3.2×	4.9%
F&F	4.6×	1.2×	1.2×	—	4.3%
LF	5.7×	0.4×	0.3×	4.6×	3.2%
Chokwang Leather	44.9×	0.7×	5.0×	59.8×	0.0%
Handsome	7.1×	0.3×	0.3×	—	0.0%
JS	4.0×	0.6×	0.2×	—	5.3%
Hansae	9.3×	0.4×	0.2×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	6.4×	0.5×	0.3×	32.2×	1.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Shinwon / 신원 / 009270 / KRX:009270

Source: KRX statistical information