HMM

011200 · KOSPI · ₩011200 · HMM

₩22,550▼ ₩100 (0.44%)End-of-day · Oct 26, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩29,858

vs the current price (₩22,550)

Enterprise value
₩33T
Equity value
₩28T
WACC
6.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩18,530
−17.8%
Base
₩29,858
+32.4%
Bull
₩49,510
+119.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (26.9%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 26.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 16.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 20.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.02, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩12T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩5T
+ Stakes and investments
₩492B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩1.7B
Shares
943,237,970
Share price
₩22,550
Market cap
₩21T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩8.4T₩12T₩11T₩10T₩9.7T₩9.3T₩9.3T₩9.6T
Growth−54.8%39.3%−6.9%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩585B₩3.5T₩1.5T₩2.8T₩2.6T₩2.5T₩2.5T₩2.6T
EBIT margin7.0%30.0%13.4%26.9%26.9%26.9%26.9%26.9%
After-tax EBIT₩424B₩2.5T₩1.1T₩2T₩1.9T₩1.8T₩1.8T₩1.9T
+ Depreciation———₩1.7T₩1.6T₩1.5T₩1.5T₩1.6T
− Capital spending₩2T₩2.5T₩1.6T₩2.1T₩2T₩1.9T₩1.9T₩1.9T
− Working capital₩676B₩6.2T−₩3.4T−₩461B−₩278B−₩136B−₩7.5B₩112B
Free cash flow———₩2.1T₩1.8T₩1.6T₩1.5T₩1.4T
Discount factor———0.9370.8780.8230.7720.723
Present value———₩1.9T₩1.6T₩1.3T₩1.1T₩996B

Terminal value ₩36T, worth ₩26T today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩30,457 a share)Now 0.74×₩20,4600.67×₩23,2690.76×₩78,7752.59×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,519 a share)Now 14.9×₩2,8481.88×₩8,1735.38×₩20,85013.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,744 a share)Now 12.9×₩3,2701.88×₩9,3855.38×₩23,94213.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.7%₩31,747₩34,993₩39,114₩44,520₩51,925
6.2%₩28,246₩30,789₩33,935₩37,927₩43,164
6.7%₩25,362₩27,395₩29,858₩32,905₩36,773
7.2%₩22,943₩24,597₩26,567₩28,953₩31,904
7.7%₩20,887₩22,252₩23,854₩25,761₩28,072

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩21T
Enterprise value
₩20T
P/E
14.9×
P/B
0.7×
P/S
1.8×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩20,500₩17,660₩19,580₩19,550₩26,900
Market cap₩19T₩17T₩18T₩18T₩25T
P/E10.3×4.4×19.1×1.8×4.8×
P/B0.7×0.6×0.9×0.9×2.4×
P/S1.8×1.4×2.2×1.0×1.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield3.4%3.4%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
HMM14.9×0.7×1.8×—3.1%
Hyundai Glovis8.6×1.2×0.4×—3.3%
Pan Ocean9.5×0.5×0.5×—2.5%
CJ Logistics6.6×0.3×0.1×—1.2%
Korea Line3.4×0.2×0.5×—0.0%
Heung-A Shipping17.2×1.5×2.3×—0.0%
Chunil Express—48.0×6.6×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)8.6×0.9×0.5×—0.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: HMM / 011200 / KRX:011200

Source: KRX statistical information