HMMHMM
011200 · KOSPI · ₩011200 · HMM
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩29,858
vs the current price (₩22,550)
- Enterprise value
- ₩33T
- Equity value
- ₩28T
- WACC
- 6.7%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩18,530
- −17.8%
- Base
- ₩29,858
- +32.4%
- Bull
- ₩49,510
- +119.6%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (26.9%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 26.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 16.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 20.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.02, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩12T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩5T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩492B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩1.7B
- Shares
- 943,237,970
- Share price
- ₩22,550
- Market cap
- ₩21T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩8.4T | ₩12T | ₩11T | ₩10T | ₩9.7T | ₩9.3T | ₩9.3T | ₩9.6T |
| Growth | −54.8% | 39.3% | −6.9% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩585B | ₩3.5T | ₩1.5T | ₩2.8T | ₩2.6T | ₩2.5T | ₩2.5T | ₩2.6T |
| EBIT margin | 7.0% | 30.0% | 13.4% | 26.9% | 26.9% | 26.9% | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩424B | ₩2.5T | ₩1.1T | ₩2T | ₩1.9T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.9T |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩1.7T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.6T |
| − Capital spending | ₩2T | ₩2.5T | ₩1.6T | ₩2.1T | ₩2T | ₩1.9T | ₩1.9T | ₩1.9T |
| − Working capital | ₩676B | ₩6.2T | −₩3.4T | −₩461B | −₩278B | −₩136B | −₩7.5B | ₩112B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩2.1T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.4T |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.937 | 0.878 | 0.823 | 0.772 | 0.723 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩1.9T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.1T | ₩996B |
Terminal value ₩36T, worth ₩26T today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩30,457 a share)Now 0.74× | ₩20,4600.67× | ₩23,2690.76× | ₩78,7752.59× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,519 a share)Now 14.9× | ₩2,8481.88× | ₩8,1735.38× | ₩20,85013.7× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,744 a share)Now 12.9× | ₩3,2701.88× | ₩9,3855.38× | ₩23,94213.7× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | ₩31,747 | ₩34,993 | ₩39,114 | ₩44,520 | ₩51,925 |
| 6.2% | ₩28,246 | ₩30,789 | ₩33,935 | ₩37,927 | ₩43,164 |
| 6.7% | ₩25,362 | ₩27,395 | ₩29,858 | ₩32,905 | ₩36,773 |
| 7.2% | ₩22,943 | ₩24,597 | ₩26,567 | ₩28,953 | ₩31,904 |
| 7.7% | ₩20,887 | ₩22,252 | ₩23,854 | ₩25,761 | ₩28,072 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩21T
- Enterprise value
- ₩20T
- P/E
- 14.9×
- P/B
- 0.7×
- P/S
- 1.8×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 3.1%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩20,500 | ₩17,660 | ₩19,580 | ₩19,550 | ₩26,900 |
| Market cap | ₩19T | ₩17T | ₩18T | ₩18T | ₩25T |
| P/E | 10.3× | 4.4× | 19.1× | 1.8× | 4.8× |
| P/B | 0.7× | 0.6× | 0.9× | 0.9× | 2.4× |
| P/S | 1.8× | 1.4× | 2.2× | 1.0× | 1.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 3.4% | 3.4% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMM | 14.9× | 0.7× | 1.8× | — | 3.1% |
| Hyundai Glovis | 8.6× | 1.2× | 0.4× | — | 3.3% |
| Pan Ocean | 9.5× | 0.5× | 0.5× | — | 2.5% |
| CJ Logistics | 6.6× | 0.3× | 0.1× | — | 1.2% |
| Korea Line | 3.4× | 0.2× | 0.5× | — | 0.0% |
| Heung-A Shipping | 17.2× | 1.5× | 2.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Chunil Express | — | 48.0× | 6.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 8.6× | 0.9× | 0.5× | — | 0.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: HMM / 011200 / KRX:011200
Source: KRX statistical information