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HAN Express

014130 · KOSPI · ₩014130 · 한익스프레스

₩2,235▼ ₩80 (3.46%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
₩43B
Equity value
−₩141B
WACC
4.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,235, the model needs an operating margin of 1.6% every year (it uses 0.5%).
  • Or revenue growth +34.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
₩41,201
+1,743.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.5%).

Revenue growth

  • -9.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 0.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -0.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.2, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩622B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩189B
+ Stakes and investments
₩9.2B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩3.6B
Shares
11,817,883
Share price
₩2,235
Market cap
₩26B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩668B₩712B₩630B₩561B₩524B₩506B₩505B₩521B
Growth−22.1%6.6%−11.6%−9.8%−6.6%−3.4%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩8.7B₩3.4B−₩3.6B₩2.8B₩2.6B₩2.5B₩2.5B₩2.6B
EBIT margin1.3%0.5%−0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%
After-tax EBIT₩6.3B₩2.4B−₩2.6B₩2B₩1.9B₩1.8B₩1.8B₩1.9B
+ Depreciation———₩7.9B₩7.3B₩7.1B₩7.1B₩7.3B
− Capital spending₩13B₩18B₩4.5B₩9.5B₩8.9B₩8.6B₩8.6B₩8.9B
− Working capital−₩33B−₩5.2B−₩18B₩488M₩296M₩143M₩8.1M−₩121M
Free cash flow———−₩137M₩31M₩174M₩308M₩447M
Discount factor———0.9580.9170.8790.8420.806
Present value———−₩131M₩29M₩153M₩259M₩360M

Terminal value ₩53B, worth ₩43B today: 98% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩6,618 a share)Now 0.34×₩2,5660.39×₩3,8030.57×₩5,5080.83×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩912 a share)Now 2.45×₩1,9412.13×₩9,0499.92×₩26,52829.1×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.4%—————
3.9%—————
4.4%—————
4.9%—————
5.4%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩26B
Enterprise value
₩83B
P/E
—
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.0×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩3,045₩3,325₩6,550₩5,260₩6,320
Market cap₩36B₩39B₩77B₩62B₩75B
P/E—2.3×—7.3×19.1×
P/B0.4×0.4×1.0×0.6×1.0×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%3.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
HAN Express—0.3×0.0×—0.0%
HMM15.4×0.8×1.9×—3.0%
Hyundai Glovis8.9×1.3×0.4×—3.2%
Pan Ocean9.2×0.5×0.5×—2.6%
CJ Logistics6.8×0.4×0.1×—1.2%
Korea Line3.5×0.3×0.5×—0.0%
Heung-A Shipping17.4×1.5×2.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)9.1×0.6×0.5×—1.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: HAN Express / 한익스프레스 / 014130 / KRX:014130

Source: KRX statistical information