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Samryoong

014970 · KOSDAQ · ₩014970 · 삼륭물산

₩3,895 ₩0 (0.00%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩2,261

vs the current price (₩3,895)

Enterprise value
₩48B
Equity value
₩34B
WACC
6.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 42% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,895, the model needs an operating margin of 5.4% every year (it uses 3.9%).
  • Or revenue growth +15.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from −1.3% to 6.9% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩2,261
−41.9%
Bull
₩6,738
+73.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.9%).

Revenue growth

  • 1.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 22.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.13, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩101B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩15B
+ Stakes and investments
₩476M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
14,825,000
Share price
₩3,895
Market cap
₩58B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩86B₩94B₩94B₩103B₩104B₩107B₩109B₩113B
Growth−4.4%9.0%0.2%1.4%1.8%2.2%2.6%3.0%
EBIT₩1.2B₩5.8B₩6.5B₩4B₩4.1B₩4.2B₩4.3B₩4.4B
EBIT margin1.4%6.2%6.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%
After-tax EBIT₩855M₩4.2B₩4.7B₩2.9B₩3B₩3B₩3.1B₩3.2B
+ Depreciation———₩1.7B₩1.8B₩1.8B₩1.9B₩1.9B
− Capital spending₩2.5B₩2.6B₩898M₩2.3B₩2.3B₩2.3B₩2.4B₩2.5B
− Working capital−₩9.6B−₩1.8B₩4.1B₩319M₩415M₩517M₩624M₩739M
Free cash flow———₩2.1B₩2B₩2B₩1.9B₩1.9B
Discount factor———0.9380.8790.8240.7730.724
Present value———₩1.9B₩1.8B₩1.6B₩1.5B₩1.4B

Terminal value ₩54B, worth ₩39B today: 83% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,926 a share)Now 0.99×₩3,4390.88×₩4,7111.20×₩7,7901.98×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.7%₩2,659₩2,883₩3,166₩3,537₩4,045
6.2%₩2,292₩2,457₩2,659₩2,915₩3,250
6.7%₩1,991₩2,114₩2,261₩2,443₩2,672
7.2%₩1,739₩1,831₩1,941₩2,072₩2,234
7.7%₩1,525₩1,595₩1,677₩1,773₩1,889

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩58B
Enterprise value
₩72B
P/E
9.0×
P/B
1.0×
P/S
0.6×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.7%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩7,530₩3,345₩3,575₩4,775₩7,010
Market cap₩112B₩50B₩53B₩71B₩104B
P/E18.4×—26.0×——
P/B1.9×0.9×0.9×1.2×1.6×
P/S1.2×0.5×0.6×0.8×1.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield1.4%2.2%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Samryoong9.0×1.0×0.6×—2.7%
SM Kukil—3.2×6.1×—0.0%
Shindaeyang Paper9.9×0.5×0.5×—2.8%
Dongwha Enterprise—0.4×0.3×—0.0%
Asia Paper Manufacturing10.5×0.3×0.3×—2.8%
Hansol Paper7.3×0.2×0.1×—7.3%
Sambo Corrugated Board4.5×0.2×0.2×—2.4%
Similar companies (median)8.6×0.3×0.3×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Samryoong / 삼륭물산 / 014970 / KRX:014970

Source: KRX statistical information