KOSPI · 028670 · Transport & Logistics · ₩028670

Pan Ocean팬오션

028670 · KOSPI · ₩028670 · 팬오션

₩5,850▼ ₩150 (2.50%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩11,518

vs the current price (₩5,850)

Enterprise value: ₩10T
Equity value: ₩6.2T
WACC: 5.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 97% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩5,850, the model needs an operating margin of 7.3% every year (it uses 10.0%).
Or revenue growth −7.4 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩7T, operating profit ₩701B (10.1% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩6.9T, operating profit ₩718B (10.5% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Today's P/E is 9.2× against a typical 6.7× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩2,587; −55.8%
Base: ₩11,518; +96.9%
Bull: ₩29,860; +410.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.0%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 1-5.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 2-3.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 3-1.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 40.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin10%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation5%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending6.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital3.5%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.15, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩6.2T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩4.1T
+ Stakes and investments: ₩221B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares: 534,569,512
Share price: ₩5,850
Market cap: ₩3.1T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩4.4T	₩5.2T	₩5.4T	₩5.8T	₩5.6T	₩5.6T	₩5.6T	₩5.8T
Growth	−32.1%	18.3%	5.3%	−5.4%	−3.3%	−1.2%	0.9%	3.0%
EBIT	₩386B	₩471B	₩492B	₩584B	₩564B	₩558B	₩563B	₩579B
EBIT margin	8.8%	9.1%	9.1%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%
After-tax EBIT	₩280B	₩342B	₩357B	₩423B	₩409B	₩404B	₩408B	₩420B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩292B	₩282B	₩279B	₩281B	₩290B
− Capital spending	₩317B	₩386B	₩222B	₩368B	₩355B	₩351B	₩354B	₩365B
− Working capital	−₩199B	₩314B	−₩21B	−₩12B	−₩6.7B	−₩2.4B	₩1.8B	₩5.9B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩359B	₩342B	₩334B	₩333B	₩339B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.948	0.898	0.851	0.807	0.765
Present value	—	—	—	₩340B	₩308B	₩284B	₩269B	₩259B

Terminal value ₩11T, worth ₩8.6T today: 86% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩11,826 a share)Now 0.49×	₩4,2920.36×	₩5,7280.48×	₩9,9110.84×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩633 a share)Now 9.24×	₩2,5424.01×	₩4,2616.73×	₩6,2239.83×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,028 a share)Now 5.69×	₩4,1284.01×	₩6,9206.73×	₩10,1059.83×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
4.5%	₩12,302	₩15,148	₩19,129	₩25,096	₩35,027
5.0%	₩9,815	₩11,905	₩14,690	₩18,585	₩24,424
5.5%	₩7,882	₩9,473	₩11,518	₩14,243	₩18,055
6.0%	₩6,336	₩7,582	₩9,139	₩11,140	₩13,807
6.5%	₩5,071	₩6,070	₩7,289	₩8,814	₩10,772

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩3.1T
Enterprise value: ₩7T
P/E: 9.2×
P/B: 0.5×
P/S: 0.5×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 2.6%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩3,850	₩3,300	₩3,735	₩5,730	₩5,410
Market cap	₩2.1T	₩1.8T	₩2T	₩3.1T	₩2.9T
P/E	6.8×	6.6×	8.1×	4.5×	5.3×
P/B	0.4×	0.3×	0.4×	0.7×	0.8×
P/S	0.4×	0.3×	0.5×	0.5×	0.6×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	3.9%	3.6%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Pan Ocean	9.2×	0.5×	0.5×	—	2.6%
HMM	14.8×	0.7×	1.8×	—	3.1%
Hyundai Glovis	8.8×	1.2×	0.4×	—	3.2%
CJ Logistics	6.5×	0.3×	0.1×	—	1.3%
Korea Line	3.4×	0.2×	0.5×	—	0.0%
Heung-A Shipping	17.3×	1.5×	2.3×	—	0.0%
Chunil Express	—	46.6×	6.4×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	8.8×	1.0×	1.2×	—	0.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Pan Ocean / 팬오션 / 028670 / KRX:028670

Source: KRX statistical information