Ask Warren

Simmtech Holdings

036710 · KOSDAQ · ₩036710 · 심텍홀딩스

₩3,780▲ ₩275 (7.85%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩194B
Equity value
−₩1.2T
WACC
5.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,780, the model needs an operating margin of 4.9% every year (it uses 0.9%).
  • Margins ranged from −18.9% to 17.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.9%).

Revenue growth

  • -3.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 0.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 8.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 10.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -3.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 1.08

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.12, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.8T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩597B
+ Stakes and investments
₩4.8B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩371B
Shares
52,827,754
Share price
₩3,780
Market cap
₩200B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.1T₩1.3T₩1.5T₩1.8T₩1.7T₩1.7T₩1.8T₩1.8T
Growth−36.1%19.1%17.4%−3.7%−2.0%−0.3%1.3%3.0%
EBIT−₩206B−₩132B−₩34B₩16B₩16B₩16B₩16B₩16B
EBIT margin−18.9%−10.1%−2.2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
After-tax EBIT−₩150B−₩95B−₩25B₩12B₩11B₩11B₩11B₩12B
+ Depreciation₩98B₩106B₩109B₩143B₩140B₩140B₩142B₩146B
− Capital spending₩190B₩141B₩71B₩193B₩189B₩188B₩191B₩197B
− Working capital−₩62B₩7.2B₩195B₩2.6B₩1.3B₩198M−₩854M−₩2B
Free cash flow−₩179B−₩138B−₩182B−₩41B−₩39B−₩37B−₩37B−₩37B
Discount factor———0.9470.8970.8500.8050.763
Present value———−₩38B−₩35B−₩32B−₩30B−₩28B

Terminal value −₩42B, worth −₩32B today: 16% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩630 a share)Now 6.00×₩4620.73×₩7941.26×₩14,43722.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.6%—————
5.1%—————
5.6%—————
6.1%—————
6.6%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩200B
Enterprise value
₩784B
P/E
—
P/B
6.0×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
4.5×
Dividend yield
0.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,720₩1,042₩3,290₩2,840₩4,755
Market cap₩144B₩55B₩174B₩150B₩251B
P/E———4.5×9.2×
P/B5.6×2.2×1.3×0.7×1.3×
P/S0.1×0.0×0.2×0.1×0.2×
EV/EBITDA10.0×——0.5×1.3×
Dividend yield0.4%1.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Simmtech Holdings—6.0×0.1×4.5×0.3%
S-123.7×2.1×1.3×—0.0%
Cheil Worldwide9.7×1.3×0.5×—6.6%
Doosan Tesna59.6×4.5×6.2×—0.2%
Lotte Tour Development16.0×2.2×1.2×—0.0%
Soulbrain Holdings1.3×0.4×1.3×—1.3%
Innocean Worldwide5.5×0.6×0.3×—6.7%
Similar companies (median)12.9×1.7×1.2×—0.7%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Simmtech Holdings / 심텍홀딩스 / 036710 / KRX:036710

Source: KRX statistical information