RedcapTour

038390 · KOSDAQ · ₩038390 · 레드캡투어

₩9,800▲ ₩50 (0.51%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩61,216

vs the current price (₩9,800)

Enterprise value
₩1.4T
Equity value
₩1T
WACC
5.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 525% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩9,800, the model needs an operating margin of 4.6% every year (it uses 12.5%).
  • Or revenue growth −19.4 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 6.4× against a typical 7.7× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩24,340
+148.4%
Base
₩61,216
+524.7%
Bull
₩140,534
+1,334.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (12.5%).

Revenue growth

  • 11.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 9.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 12.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.5%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -10%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.05, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩356B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩365B
Shares
16,720,822
Share price
₩9,800
Market cap
₩164B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩338B₩359B₩366B₩398B₩436B₩468B₩492B₩507B
Growth29.0%6.1%1.9%11.7%9.5%7.4%5.2%3.0%
EBIT₩39B₩44B₩47B₩50B₩54B₩58B₩62B₩63B
EBIT margin11.5%12.1%12.8%12.5%12.5%12.5%12.5%12.5%
After-tax EBIT₩28B₩32B₩34B₩36B₩39B₩42B₩45B₩46B
+ Depreciation———₩1.6B₩1.7B₩1.9B₩2B₩2B
− Capital spending₩896M₩2.6B₩1.5B₩2B₩2.2B₩2.3B₩2.5B₩2.5B
− Working capital₩10B−₩4.4B−₩14B−₩4.2B−₩3.8B−₩3.2B−₩2.4B−₩1.5B
Free cash flow———₩40B₩43B₩45B₩47B₩47B
Discount factor———0.9510.9050.8610.8200.780
Present value———₩38B₩39B₩39B₩38B₩37B

Terminal value ₩1.5T, worth ₩1.2T today: 86% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩12,751 a share)Now 0.77×₩8,1050.64×₩10,3800.81×₩13,1151.03×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,533 a share)Now 6.39×₩10,0306.54×₩11,8017.70×₩15,52810.1×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩2,184 a share)Now 4.49×₩14,2866.54×₩16,8087.70×₩22,11710.1×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.1%₩63,512₩78,585₩100,836₩136,987₩205,963
4.6%₩51,619₩62,354₩77,219₩99,164₩134,816
5.1%₩42,625₩50,629₩61,216₩75,878₩97,522
5.6%₩35,586₩41,763₩49,657₩60,100₩74,562
6.1%₩29,928₩34,824₩40,916₩48,703₩59,004

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩164B
Enterprise value
₩527B
P/E
6.4×
P/B
0.8×
P/S
0.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
8.2%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩11,480₩8,590₩7,800₩9,525₩10,400
Market cap₩192B₩144B₩130B₩159B₩174B
P/E8.1×7.1×7.8×7.5×14.4×
P/B1.0×0.7×0.6×0.8×1.0×
P/S0.5×0.4×0.4×0.6×0.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield7.0%25.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
RedcapTour6.4×0.8×0.5×—8.2%
S-123.7×2.1×1.3×—0.0%
Cheil Worldwide9.7×1.3×0.5×—6.6%
Doosan Tesna59.6×4.5×6.2×—0.2%
Lotte Tour Development16.0×2.2×1.2×—0.0%
Soulbrain Holdings1.3×0.4×1.3×—1.3%
Innocean Worldwide5.5×0.6×0.3×—6.7%
Similar companies (median)12.9×1.7×1.2×—0.7%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: RedcapTour / 레드캡투어 / 038390 / KRX:038390

Source: KRX statistical information