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KSS Line

044450 · KOSPI · ₩044450 · KSS해운

₩11,750▲ ₩30 (0.26%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩109,382

vs the current price (₩11,750)

Enterprise value
₩3.7T
Equity value
₩2.5T
WACC
4.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 831% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩11,750, the model needs an operating margin of 7.7% every year (it uses 18.8%).
  • Or revenue growth −20.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 2.4× against a typical 4.5× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩44,245
+276.6%
Base
₩109,382
+830.9%
Bull
₩266,679
+2,169.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (18.8%).

Revenue growth

  • 8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 18.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 20.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.

  • 7.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.05, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩590B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩1.3T
+ Stakes and investments
₩41B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
22,577,525
Share price
₩11,750
Market cap
₩265B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩473B₩518B₩561B₩637B₩680B₩718B₩749B₩771B
Growth6.1%9.6%8.4%8.0%6.8%5.5%4.3%3.0%
EBIT₩88B₩104B₩110B₩120B₩128B₩135B₩141B₩145B
EBIT margin18.7%20.1%19.7%18.8%18.8%18.8%18.8%18.8%
After-tax EBIT₩64B₩75B₩80B₩87B₩93B₩98B₩102B₩105B
+ Depreciation₩95B₩102B₩116B₩129B₩137B₩145B₩151B₩156B
− Capital spending———₩25B₩27B₩29B₩30B₩31B
− Working capital−₩29B−₩214B₩1.1B₩3.7B₩3.4B₩2.9B₩2.4B₩1.8B
Free cash flow———₩186B₩200B₩211B₩221B₩228B
Discount factor———0.9560.9140.8740.8360.799
Present value———₩178B₩182B₩185B₩185B₩182B

Terminal value ₩3.5T, worth ₩2.8T today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩29,178 a share)Now 0.40×₩11,4000.39×₩13,0690.45×₩22,2120.76×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩4,935 a share)Now 2.38×₩12,6002.55×₩22,1954.50×₩56,17211.4×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩3,014 a share)Now 3.90×₩7,6952.55×₩13,5564.50×₩34,30711.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.6%₩116,252₩147,496₩198,471₩296,497₩562,611
4.1%₩92,133₩112,773₩143,317₩193,146₩288,971
4.6%₩74,654₩89,204₩109,382₩139,242₩187,957
5.1%₩61,378₩72,122₩86,348₩106,076₩135,270
5.6%₩50,932₩59,148₩69,653₩83,562₩102,852

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩265B
Enterprise value
₩1.5T
P/E
2.4×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.4×
EV/EBITDA
6.6×
Dividend yield
3.8%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩8,980₩8,760₩9,250₩9,250₩11,850
Market cap₩203B₩198B₩209B₩209B₩268B
P/E5.5×3.4×12.3×4.6×4.8×
P/B0.4×0.4×0.5×0.5×0.8×
P/S0.4×0.4×0.4×0.5×0.8×
EV/EBITDA6.1×6.5×8.0×10.8×13.1×
Dividend yield5.0%4.6%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
KSS Line2.4×0.4×0.4×6.6×3.8%
HMM14.8×0.7×1.8×—3.1%
Hyundai Glovis8.8×1.2×0.4×—3.2%
Pan Ocean9.2×0.5×0.5×—2.6%
CJ Logistics6.5×0.3×0.1×—1.3%
Korea Line3.4×0.2×0.5×—0.0%
Heung-A Shipping17.3×1.5×2.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)9.0×0.6×0.5×—1.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: KSS Line / KSS해운 / 044450 / KRX:044450

Source: KRX statistical information