Ask Warren

NICE Infra

063570 · KOSDAQ · ₩063570 · NICE인프라

₩3,035▲ ₩5 (0.17%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩13,215

vs the current price (₩3,035)

Enterprise value
₩660B
Equity value
₩451B
WACC
5.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 335% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,035, the model needs an operating margin of 4.2% every year (it uses 7.0%).
  • Or revenue growth −15.3 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 9.7× against a typical 18.3× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩1,573
−48.2%
Base
₩13,215
+335.4%
Bull
₩39,732
+1,209.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 9.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 10.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 13.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -1.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.08, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩421B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩234B
+ Stakes and investments
₩27B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩1.1B
Shares
34,147,728
Share price
₩3,035
Market cap
₩104B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩366B₩339B₩384B₩463B₩500B₩533B₩558B₩575B
Growth26.5%−7.3%13.4%9.9%8.2%6.5%4.7%3.0%
EBIT₩28B₩19B₩31B₩32B₩35B₩37B₩39B₩40B
EBIT margin7.7%5.5%8.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%
After-tax EBIT₩20B₩14B₩22B₩23B₩25B₩27B₩28B₩29B
+ Depreciation———₩49B₩53B₩56B₩59B₩61B
− Capital spending₩58B₩43B₩43B₩61B₩66B₩70B₩74B₩76B
− Working capital₩12B₩49M−₩15B−₩458M−₩417M−₩358M−₩276M−₩184M
Free cash flow———₩12B₩13B₩14B₩14B₩14B
Discount factor———0.9520.9060.8620.8210.781
Present value———₩11B₩12B₩12B₩12B₩11B

Terminal value ₩771B, worth ₩602B today: 91% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,415 a share)Now 0.56×₩4,0570.75×₩5,2940.98×₩6,5451.21×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩314 a share)Now 9.68×₩4,06413.0×₩5,75318.3×₩14,45646.1×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩580 a share)Now 5.23×₩7,51813.0×₩10,64318.3×₩26,74146.1×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.1%₩13,897₩17,590₩23,068₩32,038₩49,397
4.6%₩10,941₩13,552₩17,180₩22,561₩31,373
5.1%₩8,715₩10,650₩13,215₩16,779₩22,066
5.6%₩6,980₩8,464₩10,365₩12,886₩16,388
6.1%₩5,589₩6,760₩8,219₩10,087₩12,564

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩104B
Enterprise value
₩202B
P/E
9.7×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
4.6%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,150₩4,630₩6,160₩4,590₩5,480
Market cap₩142B₩158B₩210B₩157B₩187B
P/E20.0×64.3×14.7×18.3×20.2×
P/B0.8×0.9×1.2×0.9×1.1×
P/S0.4×0.5×0.6×0.5×0.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield3.4%2.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
NICE Infra9.7×0.6×0.2×—4.6%
S-124.0×2.1×1.3×—0.0%
Cheil Worldwide9.8×1.3×0.5×—6.5%
Doosan Tesna54.7×4.1×5.7×—0.2%
Lotte Tour Development15.4×2.2×1.1×—0.0%
Soulbrain Holdings1.3×0.4×1.3×—1.3%
Innocean Worldwide5.5×0.6×0.3×—6.7%
Similar companies (median)12.6×1.7×1.2×—0.7%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: NICE Infra / NICE인프라 / 063570 / KRX:063570

Source: KRX statistical information