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Exion Group

069920 · KOSDAQ · ₩069920 · 엑시온그룹

₩1,469▲ ₩101 (7.38%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩189B
Equity value
−₩196B
WACC
12.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,469, the model needs an operating margin of 9.2% every year (it uses −20.0%).
  • Margins ranged from −248.9% to −24.6% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 25%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (63.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 19.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (63.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 14%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (63.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (63.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (63.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -20%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 3.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 1.88

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 2.31, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩68B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩8.4B
+ Stakes and investments
₩1.4B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
24,119,218
Share price
₩1,469
Market cap
₩35B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩4.6B₩4.7B₩24B₩85B₩101B₩115B₩125B₩129B
Growth−15.1%2.2%405.5%25.0%19.5%14.0%8.5%3.0%
EBIT−₩12B−₩10B−₩5.9B−₩17B−₩20B−₩23B−₩25B−₩26B
EBIT margin−248.9%−212.2%−24.6%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩8.4B−₩7.3B−₩4.3B−₩12B−₩15B−₩17B−₩18B−₩19B
+ Depreciation₩126M₩164M₩359M₩2.2B₩2.6B₩3B₩3.3B₩3.3B
− Capital spending₩58M₩443M₩115M₩3.1B₩3.7B₩4.3B₩4.6B₩4.8B
− Working capital−₩11B−₩6.6B−₩29B₩6.8B₩6.6B₩5.7B₩3.9B₩1.5B
Free cash flow₩2.8B−₩1B₩25B−₩20B−₩22B−₩24B−₩23B−₩22B
Discount factor———0.8900.7920.7050.6270.558
Present value———−₩18B−₩18B−₩17B−₩15B−₩12B

Terminal value −₩197B, worth −₩110B today: 58% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩1,544 a share)Now 0.95×₩2,4081.56×₩13,4808.73×₩27,56117.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
11.4%—————
11.9%—————
12.4%—————
12.9%—————
13.4%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩35B
Enterprise value
₩42B
P/E
—
P/B
1.0×
P/S
0.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩5,033₩6,420₩23,212₩55,383₩22,395
Market cap₩121B₩155B₩560B₩1.3T₩540B
P/E————12.1×
P/B3.2×3.2×13.4×23.4×8.1×
P/S5.1×32.6×120.5×244.0×56.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Exion Group—1.0×0.5×—0.0%
Samsung C&T18.8×0.5×1.2×—0.9%
POSCO International10.5×1.2×0.3×—3.8%
ISC45.4×6.1×12.7×—0.5%
Youngone5.1×0.7×0.7×—3.1%
Dong SUH Companies19.2×1.6×5.1×—4.1%
Shinsegae13.9×0.4×0.3×—2.1%
Similar companies (median)16.3×1.0×1.0×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Exion Group / 엑시온그룹 / 069920 / KRX:069920

Source: KRX statistical information