KOSDAQ · 078130 · Wood & Paper · ₩078130

SM Kukil에스엠국일

078130 · KOSDAQ · ₩078130 · 에스엠국일

₩3,355▼ ₩40 (1.18%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value: −₩30B
Equity value: −₩9.9B
WACC: 11.2%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
Margins ranged from −9.8% to −0.7% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: —
Bull: —

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−5.0%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 1-10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-15.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 2-6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-15.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 3-3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-15.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 4-0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-15.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-15.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin-5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation13.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending16.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital36.2%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
Beta1.29
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.44, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩63B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩16B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩3.7B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares: 112,740,587
Share price: ₩3,355
Market cap: ₩378B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩81B	₩56B	₩68B	₩56B	₩53B	₩51B	₩51B	₩52B
Growth	−28.3%	−30.2%	20.3%	−10.0%	−6.7%	−3.5%	−0.2%	3.0%
EBIT	−₩7.4B	−₩1.3B	−₩495M	−₩2.8B	−₩2.6B	−₩2.5B	−₩2.5B	−₩2.6B
EBIT margin	−9.2%	−2.3%	−0.7%	−5.0%	−5.0%	−5.0%	−5.0%	−5.0%
After-tax EBIT	−₩5.4B	−₩934M	−₩359M	−₩2B	−₩1.9B	−₩1.8B	−₩1.8B	−₩1.9B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩7.5B	₩7B	₩6.7B	₩6.7B	₩6.9B
− Capital spending	—	₩1.8B	₩20B	₩9.3B	₩8.7B	₩8.4B	₩8.4B	₩8.6B
− Working capital	−₩31B	₩38B	−₩9.7B	−₩2.3B	−₩1.4B	−₩667M	−₩37M	₩551M
Free cash flow	—	—	—	−₩1.6B	−₩2.3B	−₩2.9B	−₩3.5B	−₩4.2B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.899	0.809	0.728	0.655	0.589
Present value	—	—	—	−₩1.5B	−₩1.8B	−₩2.1B	−₩2.3B	−₩2.5B

Terminal value −₩33B, worth −₩19B today: 66% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩1,061 a share)Now 3.16×	₩3,4943.29×	₩6,0085.66×	₩31,71029.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
12.2%	—	—	—	—	—

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩378B
Enterprise value: ₩362B
P/E: —
P/B: 3.2×
P/S: 6.0×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩3,480	₩4,300	₩4,300	₩11,932	₩21,848
Market cap	₩392B	₩485B	₩485B	₩1.3T	₩2.5T
P/E	—	—	—	—	—
P/B	3.3×	3.9×	3.5×	27.4×	36.4×
P/S	5.8×	8.6×	6.0×	12.0×	25.8×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	0.0%	—	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
SM Kukil	—	3.2×	6.0×	—	0.0%
Shindaeyang Paper	10.0×	0.5×	0.5×	—	2.8%
Dongwha Enterprise	—	0.4×	0.3×	—	0.0%
Asia Paper Manufacturing	10.3×	0.3×	0.3×	—	2.8%
Hansol Paper	7.4×	0.2×	0.1×	—	7.3%
Sambo Corrugated Board	4.5×	0.2×	0.2×	—	2.4%
Moorim P&P	—	0.2×	0.1×	—	7.8%
Similar companies (median)	8.7×	0.3×	0.3×	—	2.8%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: SM Kukil / 에스엠국일 / 078130 / KRX:078130

Source: KRX statistical information