Green Chemical그린케미칼
083420 · KOSPI · ₩083420 · 그린케미칼
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩5,833
vs the current price (₩4,440)
- Enterprise value
- ₩162B
- Equity value
- ₩140B
- WACC
- 6.5%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩1,182
- −73.4%
- Base
- ₩5,833
- +31.4%
- Bull
- ₩14,861
- +234.7%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.4%).
Revenue growth
- -2.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 4.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 4.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 5.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 12.7%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.07, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩316B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩40B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩18B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 24,000,000
- Share price
- ₩4,440
- Market cap
- ₩107B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩282B | ₩330B | ₩304B | ₩309B | ₩306B | ₩307B | ₩313B | ₩322B |
| Growth | −13.1% | 17.0% | −8.0% | −2.2% | −0.9% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩5B | ₩11B | ₩10B | ₩14B | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩14B |
| EBIT margin | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩3.6B | ₩7.7B | ₩7.4B | ₩9.9B | ₩9.8B | ₩9.8B | ₩10B | ₩10B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩14B |
| − Capital spending | ₩29B | ₩5.4B | ₩12B | ₩16B | ₩16B | ₩16B | ₩17B | ₩17B |
| − Working capital | −₩9.1B | ₩360M | −₩2.1B | −₩882M | −₩353M | ₩155M | ₩663M | ₩1.2B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩7.3B | ₩6.8B | ₩6.3B | ₩5.9B | ₩5.5B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.939 | 0.882 | 0.829 | 0.778 | 0.731 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩6.9B | ₩6B | ₩5.2B | ₩4.6B | ₩4B |
Terminal value ₩185B, worth ₩135B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩5,711 a share)Now 0.78× | ₩5,5350.97× | ₩8,1231.42× | ₩11,1101.95× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩770 a share)Now 5.76× | ₩7,1569.29× | ₩11,99215.6× | ₩44,93758.3× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,117 a share)Now 3.97× | ₩10,3809.29× | ₩17,39415.6× | ₩65,17958.3× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | ₩6,370 | ₩7,010 | ₩7,832 | ₩8,928 | ₩10,465 |
| 6.0% | ₩5,610 | ₩6,097 | ₩6,706 | ₩7,488 | ₩8,531 |
| 6.5% | ₩4,989 | ₩5,369 | ₩5,833 | ₩6,411 | ₩7,155 |
| 7.0% | ₩4,473 | ₩4,775 | ₩5,136 | ₩5,576 | ₩6,125 |
| 7.5% | ₩4,038 | ₩4,281 | ₩4,567 | ₩4,909 | ₩5,327 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩107B
- Enterprise value
- ₩146B
- P/E
- 5.8×
- P/B
- 0.8×
- P/S
- 0.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 5.4%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩6,560 | ₩6,830 | ₩6,720 | ₩9,570 | ₩9,270 |
| Market cap | ₩157B | ₩164B | ₩161B | ₩230B | ₩222B |
| P/E | 16.3× | 20.0× | 48.1× | 80.0× | 14.0× |
| P/B | 1.2× | 1.3× | 1.3× | 1.9× | 1.8× |
| P/S | 0.5× | 0.5× | 0.6× | 0.7× | 0.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 3.7% | 3.5% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Chemical | 5.8× | 0.8× | 0.3× | — | 5.4% |
| APR | 25.0× | 16.7× | 4.7× | 24.7× | 1.8% |
| Amorepacific | 25.5× | 1.3× | 1.6× | — | 1.0% |
| LG H&H | — | 0.7× | 0.6× | 6.9× | 0.8% |
| Cosmax | 16.0× | 4.6× | 1.1× | 13.7× | 1.3% |
| Kolmar Korea | 15.0× | 2.8× | 0.9× | — | 0.7% |
| d'Alba Global | 17.0× | 7.3× | 2.9× | — | 1.8% |
| Similar companies (median) | 17.0× | 3.7× | 1.4× | 13.7× | 1.1% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Green Chemical / 그린케미칼 / 083420 / KRX:083420
Source: KRX statistical information