Green Chemical

083420 · KOSPI · ₩083420 · 그린케미칼

₩4,440▼ ₩40 (0.89%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩5,833

vs the current price (₩4,440)

Enterprise value
₩162B
Equity value
₩140B
WACC
6.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩1,182
−73.4%
Base
₩5,833
+31.4%
Bull
₩14,861
+234.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.4%).

Revenue growth

  • -2.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 5.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 12.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.07, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩316B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩40B
+ Stakes and investments
₩18B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
24,000,000
Share price
₩4,440
Market cap
₩107B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩282B₩330B₩304B₩309B₩306B₩307B₩313B₩322B
Growth−13.1%17.0%−8.0%−2.2%−0.9%0.4%1.7%3.0%
EBIT₩5B₩11B₩10B₩14B₩13B₩14B₩14B₩14B
EBIT margin1.8%3.2%3.3%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%
After-tax EBIT₩3.6B₩7.7B₩7.4B₩9.9B₩9.8B₩9.8B₩10B₩10B
+ Depreciation———₩13B₩13B₩13B₩13B₩14B
− Capital spending₩29B₩5.4B₩12B₩16B₩16B₩16B₩17B₩17B
− Working capital−₩9.1B₩360M−₩2.1B−₩882M−₩353M₩155M₩663M₩1.2B
Free cash flow———₩7.3B₩6.8B₩6.3B₩5.9B₩5.5B
Discount factor———0.9390.8820.8290.7780.731
Present value———₩6.9B₩6B₩5.2B₩4.6B₩4B

Terminal value ₩185B, worth ₩135B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,711 a share)Now 0.78×₩5,5350.97×₩8,1231.42×₩11,1101.95×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩770 a share)Now 5.76×₩7,1569.29×₩11,99215.6×₩44,93758.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,117 a share)Now 3.97×₩10,3809.29×₩17,39415.6×₩65,17958.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.5%₩6,370₩7,010₩7,832₩8,928₩10,465
6.0%₩5,610₩6,097₩6,706₩7,488₩8,531
6.5%₩4,989₩5,369₩5,833₩6,411₩7,155
7.0%₩4,473₩4,775₩5,136₩5,576₩6,125
7.5%₩4,038₩4,281₩4,567₩4,909₩5,327

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩107B
Enterprise value
₩146B
P/E
5.8×
P/B
0.8×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
5.4%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩6,560₩6,830₩6,720₩9,570₩9,270
Market cap₩157B₩164B₩161B₩230B₩222B
P/E16.3×20.0×48.1×80.0×14.0×
P/B1.2×1.3×1.3×1.9×1.8×
P/S0.5×0.5×0.6×0.7×0.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield3.7%3.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Green Chemical5.8×0.8×0.3×—5.4%
APR25.0×16.7×4.7×24.7×1.8%
Amorepacific25.5×1.3×1.6×—1.0%
LG H&H—0.7×0.6×6.9×0.8%
Cosmax16.0×4.6×1.1×13.7×1.3%
Kolmar Korea15.0×2.8×0.9×—0.7%
d'Alba Global17.0×7.3×2.9×—1.8%
Similar companies (median)17.0×3.7×1.4×13.7×1.1%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Green Chemical / 그린케미칼 / 083420 / KRX:083420

Source: KRX statistical information