KOSPI · 086280 · Transport & Logistics · ₩086280

Hyundai Glovis현대글로비스

086280 · KOSPI · ₩086280 · 현대글로비스

₩183,800▼ ₩5,000 (2.65%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩308,603

vs the current price (₩183,800)

Enterprise value: ₩21T
Equity value: ₩23T
WACC: 8.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 68% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩183,800, the model needs an operating margin of 3.9% every year (it uses 6.4%).
Or revenue growth −16.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Today's P/E is 8.9× against a typical 7.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩171,131; −6.9%
Base: ₩308,603; +67.9%
Bull: ₩533,158; +190.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Start from

Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.4%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 13.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 23.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 33%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 43%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin6.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation1.8%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending2.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital11.1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
Beta0.83
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.75, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩31T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩936B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩1.1T; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩39B
Shares: 75,000,000
Share price: ₩183,800
Market cap: ₩14T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩26T	₩28T	₩30T	₩32T	₩33T	₩34T	₩35T	₩36T
Growth	−4.8%	10.6%	4.1%	3.1%	3.1%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%
EBIT	₩1.6T	₩1.8T	₩2.1T	₩2.1T	₩2.1T	₩2.2T	₩2.3T	₩2.3T
EBIT margin	6.1%	6.2%	7.0%	6.4%	6.4%	6.4%	6.4%	6.4%
After-tax EBIT	₩1.1T	₩1.3T	₩1.5T	₩1.5T	₩1.5T	₩1.6T	₩1.6T	₩1.7T
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩582B	₩600B	₩618B	₩636B	₩655B
− Capital spending	₩321B	₩958B	₩623B	₩711B	₩733B	₩755B	₩778B	₩801B
− Working capital	₩233B	−₩423B	₩573B	₩108B	₩111B	₩111B	₩114B	₩118B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩1.3T	₩1.3T	₩1.3T	₩1.4T	₩1.4T
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.921	0.848	0.781	0.720	0.663
Present value	—	—	—	₩1.2T	₩1.1T	₩1.1T	₩996B	₩945B

Terminal value ₩24T, worth ₩16T today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩145,224 a share)Now 1.27×	₩127,8550.88×	₩159,3991.10×	₩214,9241.48×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩20,548 a share)Now 8.94×	₩113,4345.52×	₩156,0637.59×	₩205,71810.0×
P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩30,654 a share)Now 6.00×	₩169,2195.52×	₩232,8137.59×	₩306,88710.0×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
7.6%	₩324,109	₩340,731	₩360,302	₩383,693	₩412,160
8.1%	₩302,427	₩316,249	₩332,317	₩351,236	₩373,848
8.6%	₩283,624	₩295,243	₩308,603	₩324,134	₩342,419
9.1%	₩267,164	₩277,023	₩288,253	₩301,164	₩316,172
9.6%	₩252,636	₩261,072	₩270,600	₩281,450	₩293,926

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩14T
Enterprise value: ₩13T
P/E: 8.9×
P/B: 1.3×
P/S: 0.4×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 3.2%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩180,600	₩118,100	₩95,789	₩81,784	₩84,035
Market cap	₩14T	₩8.9T	₩7.2T	₩6.1T	₩6.3T
P/E	7.8×	8.1×	6.8×	5.1×	8.0×
P/B	1.3×	1.0×	0.9×	0.9×	1.1×
P/S	0.5×	0.3×	0.3×	0.2×	0.3×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	3.2%	3.1%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Hyundai Glovis	8.9×	1.3×	0.4×	—	3.2%
HMM	15.4×	0.8×	1.9×	—	3.0%
Pan Ocean	9.2×	0.5×	0.5×	—	2.6%
CJ Logistics	6.8×	0.4×	0.1×	—	1.2%
Korea Line	3.5×	0.3×	0.5×	—	0.0%
Heung-A Shipping	17.4×	1.5×	2.3×	—	0.0%
Korea Airport Service	5.9×	0.6×	0.4×	2.4×	1.2%
Similar companies (median)	8.0×	0.6×	0.5×	2.4×	1.2%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hyundai Glovis / 현대글로비스 / 086280 / KRX:086280

Source: KRX statistical information