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Neopharm

092730 · KOSDAQ · ₩092730 · 네오팜

₩21,750▼ ₩550 (2.47%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩38,835

vs the current price (₩21,750)

Enterprise value
₩600B
Equity value
₩622B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 79% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩21,750, the model needs an operating margin of 14.1% every year (it uses 23.7%).
  • Or revenue growth −13.7 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • 38% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 9.2× against a typical 10.1× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩26,051
+19.8%
Base
₩38,835
+78.6%
Bull
₩59,608
+174.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (23.7%).

Revenue growth

  • 16.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 12.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 9.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 23.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 8.4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 6.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.12, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩148B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩22B
Shares
16,027,989
Share price
₩21,750
Market cap
₩349B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩97B₩119B₩132B₩172B₩195B₩213B₩227B₩234B
Growth15.2%22.8%10.8%16.2%12.9%9.6%6.3%3.0%
EBIT₩26B₩25B₩29B₩41B₩46B₩51B₩54B₩55B
EBIT margin26.4%20.8%21.8%23.7%23.7%23.7%23.7%23.7%
After-tax EBIT₩19B₩18B₩21B₩30B₩33B₩37B₩39B₩40B
+ Depreciation₩600M₩1.9B₩2B₩2.1B₩2.3B₩2.6B₩2.7B₩2.8B
− Capital spending₩21B₩3.1B₩1.4B₩14B₩16B₩18B₩19B₩20B
− Working capital−₩103B₩6B₩2.6B₩1.7B₩1.5B₩1.3B₩927M₩469M
Free cash flow₩102B₩11B₩19B₩16B₩18B₩20B₩22B₩23B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———₩14B₩16B₩16B₩16B₩16B

Terminal value ₩746B, worth ₩522B today: 87% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩12,542 a share)Now 1.73×₩13,6311.09×₩17,4161.39×₩21,0071.67×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩2,353 a share)Now 9.24×₩19,8928.45×₩23,79510.1×₩29,95112.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩2,098 a share)Now 10.4×₩17,7348.45×₩21,21410.1×₩26,70212.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩40,338₩43,901₩48,271₩53,758₩60,854
6.9%₩36,679₩39,578₩43,067₩47,346₩52,720
7.4%₩33,599₩35,996₩38,835₩42,252₩46,444
7.9%₩30,972₩32,981₩35,329₩38,110₩41,458
8.4%₩28,707₩30,410₩32,378₩34,678₩37,402

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩349B
Enterprise value
₩326B
P/E
9.2×
P/B
1.7×
P/S
2.3×
EV/EBITDA
9.5×
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩18,370₩11,850₩13,237₩9,832₩12,699
Market cap₩294B₩190B₩212B₩158B₩204B
P/E10.6×8.3×9.1×8.8×12.2×
P/B1.5×1.1×1.3×1.1×1.6×
P/S2.2×1.6×2.2×1.9×2.3×
EV/EBITDA4.9×2.3×3.8×6.4×8.9×
Dividend yield0.0%0.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Neopharm9.2×1.7×2.3×9.5×0.0%
APR25.0×16.7×4.7×24.7×1.8%
Amorepacific25.5×1.3×1.6×—1.0%
LG H&H—0.7×0.6×6.9×0.8%
Cosmax16.0×4.6×1.1×13.7×1.3%
Kolmar Korea15.0×2.8×0.9×—0.7%
d'Alba Global17.0×7.3×2.9×—1.8%
Similar companies (median)17.0×3.7×1.4×13.7×1.1%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Neopharm / 네오팜 / 092730 / KRX:092730

Source: KRX statistical information