MS Autotech

123040 · KOSDAQ · ₩123040 · 엠에스오토텍

₩1,590▼ ₩105 (6.19%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩13,757

vs the current price (₩1,590)

Enterprise value
₩1.8T
Equity value
₩862B
WACC
4.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 765% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,590, the model needs an operating margin of 2.9% every year (it uses 4.7%).
  • Or revenue growth −10.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩13,757
+765.2%
Bull
₩63,777
+3,911.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.7%).

Revenue growth

  • -4.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 5.5%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -6.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.65

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.48, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.8T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩412B
+ Stakes and investments
₩3.4B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩507B
Shares
62,628,299
Share price
₩1,590
Market cap
₩100B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩2.1T₩1.8T₩1.7T₩1.7T₩1.7T₩1.7T₩1.7T₩1.7T
Growth2.8%−14.6%−2.1%−4.9%−2.9%−1.0%1.0%3.0%
EBIT₩175B₩96B₩31B₩81B₩79B₩78B₩79B₩81B
EBIT margin8.4%5.4%1.8%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%
After-tax EBIT₩127B₩70B₩23B₩59B₩57B₩57B₩57B₩59B
+ Depreciation———₩76B₩74B₩73B₩74B₩76B
− Capital spending₩101B₩139B₩67B₩95B₩93B₩92B₩92B₩95B
− Working capital−₩97B−₩2.3B₩334B₩5.4B₩3.1B₩1B−₩1B−₩3.1B
Free cash flow———₩35B₩36B₩37B₩40B₩43B
Discount factor———0.9550.9120.8710.8320.795
Present value———₩33B₩33B₩33B₩33B₩34B

Terminal value ₩2T, worth ₩1.6T today: 91% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,110 a share)Now 0.51×₩1,7030.55×₩4,2281.36×₩7,4482.39×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.7%₩14,307₩20,763₩31,035₩49,918₩96,033
4.2%₩9,641₩14,031₩20,424₩30,597₩49,297
4.7%₩6,241₩9,410₩13,757₩20,089₩30,163
5.2%₩3,655₩6,043₩9,181₩13,486₩19,756
5.7%₩1,622₩3,482₩5,847₩8,954₩13,218

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩100B
Enterprise value
₩415B
P/E
—
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,105₩2,390₩5,280₩4,205₩5,570
Market cap₩132B₩150B₩331B₩263B₩349B
P/E—94.2×27.4×6.1×—
P/B0.7×0.5×1.6×1.4×2.5×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.2×0.1×0.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
MS Autotech—0.5×0.1×—0.0%
Hyundai Mobis8.3×0.6×0.5×—1.9%
SL5.9×0.8×0.4×3.6×0.0%
HL Mando10.3×0.6×0.2×—2.0%
Hyundai WIA18.9×0.4×0.2×—2.4%
Samhyun—11.2×15.8×—0.0%
SNT Dynamics12.5×0.7×0.8×—7.3%
Similar companies (median)10.3×0.6×0.4×3.6×2.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: MS Autotech / 엠에스오토텍 / 123040 / KRX:123040

Source: KRX statistical information