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Doosan Tesna

131970 · KOSDAQ · ₩131970 · 두산테스나

₩96,800▼ ₩8,700 (8.25%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩15,224

vs the current price (₩96,800)

Enterprise value
₩386B
Equity value
₩294B
WACC
8.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 84% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩96,800, the model needs an operating margin of 57.9% every year (it uses 15.8%).
  • Or revenue growth +41.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from −0.3% to 26.0% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 54.7× against a typical 14.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩7,110
−92.7%
Base
₩15,224
−84.3%
Bull
₩27,914
−71.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (15.8%).

Revenue growth

  • 3.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 15.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 28.8%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 36%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -3.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.9

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.86, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩326B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩114B
+ Stakes and investments
₩22B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
19,327,238
Share price
₩96,800
Market cap
₩1.9T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩339B₩373B₩304B₩337B₩347B₩357B₩368B₩379B
Growth22.0%10.2%−18.6%3.1%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
EBIT₩61B₩38B−₩941M₩53B₩55B₩56B₩58B₩60B
EBIT margin17.9%10.2%−0.3%15.8%15.8%15.8%15.8%15.8%
After-tax EBIT₩44B₩27B−₩682M₩39B₩40B₩41B₩42B₩43B
+ Depreciation———₩97B₩100B₩103B₩106B₩109B
− Capital spending₩172B₩184B₩25B₩121B₩125B₩129B₩132B₩136B
− Working capital₩63B₩16B₩1.7B−₩344M−₩343M−₩354M−₩364M−₩375M
Free cash flow———₩15B₩15B₩16B₩16B₩16B
Discount factor———0.9200.8460.7780.7150.658
Present value———₩13B₩13B₩12B₩11B₩11B

Terminal value ₩495B, worth ₩326B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩23,340 a share)Now 4.15×₩30,6201.31×₩54,8182.35×₩91,8003.93×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,771 a share)Now 54.7×₩18,55710.5×₩25,83614.6×₩80,20045.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,457 a share)Now 66.5×₩15,26210.5×₩21,24814.6×₩65,95745.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.7%₩15,864₩17,388₩19,178₩21,310₩23,891
8.2%₩14,249₩15,540₩17,040₩18,800₩20,897
8.7%₩12,847₩13,953₩15,224₩16,698₩18,430
9.2%₩11,619₩12,575₩13,664₩14,914₩16,364
9.7%₩10,536₩11,369₩12,310₩13,380₩14,610

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩1.9T
Enterprise value
₩2T
P/E
54.7×
P/B
4.1×
P/S
5.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.2%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩53,200₩25,000₩58,600₩27,500₩49,950
Market cap₩1T₩483B₩1.1T₩531B₩965B
P/E680.9×13.1×23.1×10.2×20.5×
P/B2.4×1.1×2.8×1.7×3.7×
P/S3.4×1.3×3.3×1.9×4.7×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.3%0.6%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Doosan Tesna54.7×4.1×5.7×—0.2%
S-124.0×2.1×1.3×—0.0%
Cheil Worldwide9.8×1.3×0.5×—6.5%
Lotte Tour Development15.4×2.2×1.1×—0.0%
Soulbrain Holdings1.3×0.4×1.3×—1.3%
Innocean Worldwide5.5×0.6×0.3×—6.7%
Korea Ratings18.0×4.0×4.1×—8.0%
Similar companies (median)12.6×1.7×1.2×—3.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Doosan Tesna / 두산테스나 / 131970 / KRX:131970

Source: KRX statistical information