Cosmax코스맥스
192820 · KOSPI · ₩192820 · 코스맥스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩211,870
vs the current price (₩248,000)
- Enterprise value
- ₩3.4T
- Equity value
- ₩2.4T
- WACC
- 6.5%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩47,139
- −81.0%
- Base
- ₩211,870
- −14.6%
- Bull
- ₩516,364
- +108.2%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.6%).
Revenue growth
- 14.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 11.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 7.6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 10.8%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.13, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩2.7T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩936B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩18B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩64B
- Shares
- 11,349,509
- Share price
- ₩248,000
- Market cap
- ₩2.8T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.8T | ₩2.2T | ₩2.4T | ₩3T | ₩3.4T | ₩3.7T | ₩3.9T | ₩4T |
| Growth | 11.1% | 21.9% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩116B | ₩175B | ₩196B | ₩232B | ₩258B | ₩281B | ₩298B | ₩306B |
| EBIT margin | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩84B | ₩127B | ₩142B | ₩168B | ₩187B | ₩204B | ₩216B | ₩222B |
| + Depreciation | ₩56B | ₩64B | ₩69B | ₩91B | ₩102B | ₩111B | ₩117B | ₩121B |
| − Capital spending | ₩90B | ₩169B | ₩193B | ₩213B | ₩238B | ₩259B | ₩274B | ₩282B |
| − Working capital | −₩156B | ₩11B | ₩174B | ₩41B | ₩38B | ₩32B | ₩24B | ₩13B |
| Free cash flow | ₩206B | ₩11B | −₩156B | ₩4.6B | ₩13B | ₩24B | ₩36B | ₩48B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.939 | 0.881 | 0.827 | 0.776 | 0.728 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩4.3B | ₩12B | ₩20B | ₩28B | ₩35B |
Terminal value ₩4.5T, worth ₩3.3T today: 97% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩56,971 a share)Now 4.35× | ₩76,7831.35× | ₩171,0383.00× | ₩302,5415.31× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩16,236 a share)Now 15.3× | ₩182,38011.2× | ₩385,04023.7× | ₩748,13046.1× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩17,161 a share)Now 14.5× | ₩192,76611.2× | ₩406,96723.7× | ₩790,73446.1× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | ₩229,697 | ₩265,671 | ₩311,741 | ₩372,874 | ₩457,933 |
| 6.0% | ₩192,650 | ₩220,657 | ₩255,545 | ₩300,224 | ₩359,510 |
| 6.5% | ₩162,420 | ₩184,710 | ₩211,870 | ₩245,703 | ₩289,031 |
| 7.0% | ₩137,310 | ₩155,375 | ₩176,990 | ₩203,327 | ₩236,136 |
| 7.5% | ₩116,145 | ₩131,007 | ₩148,524 | ₩169,484 | ₩195,022 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩2.8T
- Enterprise value
- ₩3.8T
- P/E
- 15.3×
- P/B
- 4.4×
- P/S
- 1.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- 13.2×
- Dividend yield
- 1.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩163,000 | ₩149,100 | ₩126,400 | ₩74,100 | ₩87,400 |
| Market cap | ₩1.8T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.4T | ₩841B | ₩992B |
| P/E | 15.0× | 19.7× | 25.1× | 40.3× | 13.3× |
| P/B | 3.3× | 3.6× | 4.0× | 1.4× | 1.8× |
| P/S | 0.8× | 0.8× | 0.8× | 0.5× | 0.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0× | 9.5× | 9.7× | 11.5× | 8.2× |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | 1.5% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cosmax | 15.3× | 4.4× | 1.1× | 13.2× | 1.3% |
| APR | 24.5× | 16.3× | 4.6× | 24.1× | 1.8% |
| Amorepacific | 25.4× | 1.3× | 1.6× | — | 1.0% |
| LG H&H | — | 0.7× | 0.6× | 6.7× | 0.8% |
| Kolmar Korea | 14.7× | 2.7× | 0.9× | — | 0.7% |
| d'Alba Global | 16.6× | 7.2× | 2.8× | — | 1.8% |
| Amorepacific Holdings | 13.1× | 0.5× | 0.4× | — | 1.7% |
| Similar companies (median) | 16.6× | 2.0× | 1.3× | 15.4× | 1.3% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Cosmax / 코스맥스 / 192820 / KRX:192820
Source: KRX statistical information