Cosmax

192820 · KOSPI · ₩192820 · 코스맥스

₩248,000▼ ₩12,500 (4.80%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩211,870

vs the current price (₩248,000)

Enterprise value
₩3.4T
Equity value
₩2.4T
WACC
6.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩47,139
−81.0%
Base
₩211,870
−14.6%
Bull
₩516,364
+108.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.6%).

Revenue growth

  • 14.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 11.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 7.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 10.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.13, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩2.7T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩936B
+ Stakes and investments
₩18B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩64B
Shares
11,349,509
Share price
₩248,000
Market cap
₩2.8T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.8T₩2.2T₩2.4T₩3T₩3.4T₩3.7T₩3.9T₩4T
Growth11.1%21.9%10.7%14.4%11.6%8.7%5.9%3.0%
EBIT₩116B₩175B₩196B₩232B₩258B₩281B₩298B₩306B
EBIT margin6.5%8.1%8.2%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%
After-tax EBIT₩84B₩127B₩142B₩168B₩187B₩204B₩216B₩222B
+ Depreciation₩56B₩64B₩69B₩91B₩102B₩111B₩117B₩121B
− Capital spending₩90B₩169B₩193B₩213B₩238B₩259B₩274B₩282B
− Working capital−₩156B₩11B₩174B₩41B₩38B₩32B₩24B₩13B
Free cash flow₩206B₩11B−₩156B₩4.6B₩13B₩24B₩36B₩48B
Discount factor———0.9390.8810.8270.7760.728
Present value———₩4.3B₩12B₩20B₩28B₩35B

Terminal value ₩4.5T, worth ₩3.3T today: 97% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩56,971 a share)Now 4.35×₩76,7831.35×₩171,0383.00×₩302,5415.31×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩16,236 a share)Now 15.3×₩182,38011.2×₩385,04023.7×₩748,13046.1×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩17,161 a share)Now 14.5×₩192,76611.2×₩406,96723.7×₩790,73446.1×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.5%₩229,697₩265,671₩311,741₩372,874₩457,933
6.0%₩192,650₩220,657₩255,545₩300,224₩359,510
6.5%₩162,420₩184,710₩211,870₩245,703₩289,031
7.0%₩137,310₩155,375₩176,990₩203,327₩236,136
7.5%₩116,145₩131,007₩148,524₩169,484₩195,022

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩2.8T
Enterprise value
₩3.8T
P/E
15.3×
P/B
4.4×
P/S
1.1×
EV/EBITDA
13.2×
Dividend yield
1.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩163,000₩149,100₩126,400₩74,100₩87,400
Market cap₩1.8T₩1.7T₩1.4T₩841B₩992B
P/E15.0×19.7×25.1×40.3×13.3×
P/B3.3×3.6×4.0×1.4×1.8×
P/S0.8×0.8×0.8×0.5×0.6×
EV/EBITDA10.0×9.5×9.7×11.5×8.2×
Dividend yield2.0%1.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Cosmax15.3×4.4×1.1×13.2×1.3%
APR24.5×16.3×4.6×24.1×1.8%
Amorepacific25.4×1.3×1.6×—1.0%
LG H&H—0.7×0.6×6.7×0.8%
Kolmar Korea14.7×2.7×0.9×—0.7%
d'Alba Global16.6×7.2×2.8×—1.8%
Amorepacific Holdings13.1×0.5×0.4×—1.7%
Similar companies (median)16.6×2.0×1.3×15.4×1.3%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Cosmax / 코스맥스 / 192820 / KRX:192820

Source: KRX statistical information