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Incross

216050 · KOSDAQ · ₩216050 · 인크로스

₩4,890▼ ₩25 (0.51%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩16,284

vs the current price (₩4,890)

Enterprise value
₩270B
Equity value
₩199B
WACC
5.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 233% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩4,890, the model needs an operating margin of 13.8% every year (it uses 27.2%).
  • Or revenue growth −16.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from 20.5% to 41.3% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 5.0× against a typical 8.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩8,175
+67.2%
Base
₩16,284
+233.0%
Bull
₩32,401
+562.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (27.2%).

Revenue growth

  • -1.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 27.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.16, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩52B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩74B
+ Stakes and investments
₩2.3B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
12,198,622
Share price
₩4,890
Market cap
₩60B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩47B₩49B₩50B₩51B₩51B₩51B₩52B₩54B
Growth−12.2%4.3%3.4%−1.8%−0.6%0.6%1.8%3.0%
EBIT₩13B₩10B₩12B₩14B₩14B₩14B₩14B₩15B
EBIT margin27.0%20.5%22.8%27.2%27.2%27.2%27.2%27.2%
After-tax EBIT₩9.2B₩7.3B₩8.3B₩10B₩10B₩10B₩10B₩11B
+ Depreciation———₩358M₩356M₩358M₩365M₩376M
− Capital spending₩677M₩253M₩381M₩461M₩458M₩461M₩469M₩483M
− Working capital−₩38B₩21B₩46B−₩375M−₩123M₩122M₩369M₩625M
Free cash flow———₩10B₩10B₩9.9B₩9.8B₩9.9B
Discount factor———0.9480.8990.8520.8080.766
Present value———₩9.8B₩9B₩8.4B₩7.9B₩7.5B

Terminal value ₩297B, worth ₩228B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩10,760 a share)Now 0.45×₩6,6940.62×₩10,6570.99×₩34,2183.18×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩978 a share)Now 5.00×₩5,9276.06×₩8,3968.58×₩11,57611.8×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩868 a share)Now 5.63×₩5,2626.06×₩7,4538.58×₩10,27711.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.5%₩17,512₩20,715₩25,212₩31,984₩43,352
5.0%₩14,562₩16,889₩19,997₩24,359₩30,929
5.5%₩12,273₩14,027₩16,284₩19,299₩23,530
6.0%₩10,444₩11,804₩13,506₩15,696₩18,620
6.5%₩8,949₩10,029₩11,349₩12,999₩15,124

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩60B
Enterprise value
₩134B
P/E
5.0×
P/B
0.5×
P/S
1.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩6,700₩7,380₩10,700₩15,200₩33,230
Market cap₩82B₩90B₩131B₩185B₩405B
P/E6.8×9.2×10.3×12.0×19.2×
P/B0.6×0.8×1.1×1.7×4.4×
P/S1.6×1.8×2.8×3.5×7.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%0.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Incross5.0×0.5×1.1×—0.0%
S-124.3×2.2×1.3×—0.0%
Cheil Worldwide8.5×1.2×0.4×—6.7%
Doosan Tesna50.9×3.9×5.3×—0.2%
Lotte Tour Development15.2×2.1×1.1×—0.0%
Soulbrain Holdings1.3×0.4×1.2×—1.3%
Innocean Worldwide5.4×0.6×0.3×—6.8%
Similar companies (median)11.8×1.6×1.2×—0.8%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Incross / 인크로스 / 216050 / KRX:216050

Source: KRX statistical information