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Outin Futures

227610 · KOSDAQ · ₩227610 · 아우딘퓨쳐스

₩957▲ ₩23 (2.46%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩90B
Equity value
−₩111B
WACC
5.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩957, the model needs an operating margin of 5.1% every year (it uses −8.0%).
  • Margins ranged from −27.7% to 0.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−8.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 6.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.07, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩43B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩21B
Shares
19,374,571
Share price
₩957
Market cap
₩19B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩33B₩35B₩42B₩46B₩48B₩50B₩52B₩54B
Growth−6.7%6.1%22.2%6.5%5.7%4.8%3.9%3.0%
EBIT₩163M−₩3.4B−₩1.8B−₩3.6B−₩3.8B−₩4B−₩4.2B−₩4.3B
EBIT margin0.5%−9.7%−4.3%−8.0%−8.0%−8.0%−8.0%−8.0%
After-tax EBIT₩118M−₩2.4B−₩1.3B−₩2.6B−₩2.8B−₩2.9B−₩3B−₩3.1B
+ Depreciation₩1.8B₩1.7B₩1.6B₩2.1B₩2.3B₩2.4B₩2.5B₩2.5B
− Capital spending₩402M₩296M₩439M₩455M₩481M₩504M₩524M₩539M
− Working capital₩10B₩2.9B−₩1.9B₩1.1B₩1B₩923M₩786M₩628M
Free cash flow−₩8.9B−₩3.9B₩1.7B−₩2.1B−₩2B−₩2B−₩1.9B−₩1.8B
Discount factor———0.9470.8960.8490.8030.761
Present value———−₩2B−₩1.8B−₩1.7B−₩1.5B−₩1.3B

Terminal value −₩107B, worth −₩82B today: 91% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩1,258 a share)Now 0.76×₩1,5451.23×₩3,1242.48×₩8,0706.41×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.6%—————
5.1%—————
5.6%—————
6.1%—————
6.6%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩19B
Enterprise value
₩39B
P/E
—
P/B
0.8×
P/S
0.4×
EV/EBITDA
31.0×
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,590₩2,098₩3,964₩9,020₩2,930
Market cap₩31B₩41B₩77B₩175B₩57B
P/E—————
P/B1.5×1.7×3.0×16.4×2.9×
P/S0.7×1.2×2.3×5.0×1.3×
EV/EBITDA——49.2×——
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Outin Futures—0.8×0.4×31.0×0.0%
APR24.1×16.1×4.5×23.7×1.8%
Amorepacific25.4×1.3×1.6×—1.0%
LG H&H—0.7×0.6×6.8×0.8%
Cosmax16.2×4.6×1.1×13.8×1.3%
Kolmar Korea15.0×2.8×0.9×—0.7%
d'Alba Global16.8×7.2×2.9×—1.8%
Similar companies (median)16.8×3.7×1.4×13.8×1.1%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Outin Futures / 아우딘퓨쳐스 / 227610 / KRX:227610

Source: KRX statistical information