Jilgyungyi질경이
233990 · KONEX · ₩233990 · 질경이
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩33B
- Equity value
- −₩37B
- WACC
- 6.5%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩699, the model needs an operating margin of 8.6% every year (it uses −18.4%).
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−18.4%).
Revenue growth
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
Business
- -18.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 1 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 0.4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 1 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 1.2%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 1 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.22, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (FY 2021)
- ₩10B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩3.9B
- Shares
- 16,128,534
- Share price
- ₩699
- Market cap
- ₩11B
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2021 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩10B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩12B | ₩12B |
| Growth | — | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩1.9B | −₩2B | −₩2B | −₩2.1B | −₩2.1B | −₩2.2B |
| EBIT margin | −18.4% | −18.4% | −18.4% | −18.4% | −18.4% | −18.4% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩1.4B | −₩1.4B | −₩1.5B | −₩1.5B | −₩1.6B | −₩1.6B |
| + Depreciation | — | ₩32M | ₩33M | ₩34M | ₩35M | ₩36M |
| − Capital spending | ₩42M | ₩43M | ₩44M | ₩45M | ₩47M | ₩48M |
| − Working capital | — | ₩3.7M | ₩3.8M | ₩3.9M | ₩4.1M | ₩4.2M |
| Free cash flow | — | −₩1.4B | −₩1.5B | −₩1.5B | −₩1.6B | −₩1.6B |
| Discount factor | — | 0.939 | 0.882 | 0.829 | 0.779 | 0.731 |
| Present value | — | −₩1.3B | −₩1.3B | −₩1.3B | −₩1.2B | −₩1.2B |
Terminal value −₩37B, worth −₩27B today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩40 a share)Now 17.3× | ₩47011.6× | ₩70117.3× | ₩1,63940.5× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2022, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩11B
- Enterprise value
- ₩15B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 17.3×
- P/S
- 1.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2021 | |
|---|---|
| Price | ₩860 |
| Market cap | ₩14B |
| P/E | — |
| P/B | 21.2× |
| P/S | 1.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | — |
| Dividend yield | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jilgyungyi | — | 17.3× | 1.1× | — | 0.0% |
| APR | 22.6× | 15.1× | 4.3× | 22.2× | 2.0% |
| Amorepacific | 26.4× | 1.4× | 1.7× | — | 1.0% |
| LG H&H | — | 0.7× | 0.6× | 6.9× | 0.8% |
| Cosmax | 15.2× | 4.3× | 1.1× | 13.2× | 1.3% |
| Kolmar Korea | 14.4× | 2.7× | 0.9× | — | 0.8% |
| Amorepacific Holdings | 14.0× | 0.6× | 0.4× | — | 1.6% |
| Similar companies (median) | 15.2× | 2.0× | 1.0× | 13.2× | 1.1% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Jilgyungyi / 질경이 / 233990 / KRX:233990
Source: KRX statistical information