Cosmecca Korea코스메카코리아
241710 · KOSDAQ · ₩241710 · 코스메카코리아
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩100,255
vs the current price (₩103,000)
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.3T
- Equity value
- ₩1.1T
- WACC
- 7.0%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩45,838
- −55.5%
- Base
- ₩100,255
- −2.7%
- Bull
- ₩196,096
- +90.4%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.0%).
Revenue growth
- 17.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 13.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 6.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 10%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 6.1%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 7.6%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 23.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.11, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩772B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩156B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩708M
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩61B
- Shares
- 10,680,000
- Share price
- ₩103,000
- Market cap
- ₩1.1T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩471B | ₩524B | ₩641B | ₩904B | ₩1T | ₩1.1T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T |
| Growth | 17.9% | 11.4% | 22.2% | 17.1% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩49B | ₩60B | ₩84B | ₩90B | ₩103B | ₩113B | ₩120B | ₩124B |
| EBIT margin | 10.4% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩36B | ₩44B | ₩61B | ₩66B | ₩74B | ₩82B | ₩87B | ₩90B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩55B | ₩63B | ₩69B | ₩73B | ₩76B |
| − Capital spending | ₩19B | ₩49B | ₩61B | ₩69B | ₩78B | ₩86B | ₩91B | ₩94B |
| − Working capital | ₩13B | ₩7.9B | ₩30B | ₩31B | ₩29B | ₩24B | ₩17B | ₩8.4B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩21B | ₩30B | ₩41B | ₩52B | ₩63B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.935 | 0.874 | 0.817 | 0.764 | 0.714 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩20B | ₩27B | ₩34B | ₩40B | ₩45B |
Terminal value ₩1.6T, worth ₩1.1T today: 87% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩25,638 a share)Now 4.02× | ₩17,7000.69× | ₩59,6912.33× | ₩110,3784.31× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩5,976 a share)Now 17.2× | ₩79,92413.4× | ₩113,80019.0× | ₩190,98032.0× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩6,764 a share)Now 15.2× | ₩90,45913.4× | ₩128,80019.0× | ₩216,15232.0× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | ₩108,839 | ₩119,822 | ₩133,547 | ₩151,202 | ₩174,771 |
| 6.5% | ₩95,852 | ₩104,483 | ₩115,024 | ₩128,196 | ₩145,139 |
| 7.0% | ₩85,065 | ₩91,975 | ₩100,255 | ₩110,367 | ₩123,003 |
| 7.5% | ₩75,969 | ₩81,584 | ₩88,210 | ₩96,150 | ₩105,847 |
| 8.0% | ₩68,197 | ₩72,821 | ₩78,204 | ₩84,555 | ₩92,166 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩1.1T
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.2T
- P/E
- 17.2×
- P/B
- 4.0×
- P/S
- 1.4×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩66,600 | ₩55,300 | ₩36,300 | ₩10,250 | ₩12,950 |
| Market cap | ₩711B | ₩591B | ₩388B | ₩109B | ₩138B |
| P/E | 15.7× | 13.8× | 17.4× | 41.2× | 15.5× |
| P/B | 2.8× | 2.7× | 2.3× | 0.7× | 1.0× |
| P/S | 1.1× | 1.1× | 0.8× | 0.3× | 0.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cosmecca Korea | 17.2× | 4.0× | 1.4× | — | 0.0% |
| APR | 25.0× | 16.7× | 4.7× | 24.7× | 1.8% |
| Amorepacific | 25.5× | 1.3× | 1.6× | — | 1.0% |
| LG H&H | — | 0.7× | 0.6× | 6.9× | 0.8% |
| Cosmax | 16.0× | 4.6× | 1.1× | 13.7× | 1.3% |
| Kolmar Korea | 15.0× | 2.8× | 0.9× | — | 0.7% |
| d'Alba Global | 17.0× | 7.3× | 2.9× | — | 1.8% |
| Similar companies (median) | 17.0× | 3.7× | 1.4× | 13.7× | 1.1% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Cosmecca Korea / 코스메카코리아 / 241710 / KRX:241710
Source: KRX statistical information