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Caelum

258610 · KOSDAQ · ₩258610 · 케일럼

₩1,080▲ ₩4 (0.37%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩28B
Equity value
−₩33B
WACC
7.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,080, the model needs an operating margin of 4.5% every year (it uses −2.7%).
  • Margins ranged from −12.2% to 2.9% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−2.7%).

Revenue growth

  • -1.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -2.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 2.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.03, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩74B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩4B
+ Stakes and investments
₩54M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩632M
Shares
36,485,063
Share price
₩1,080
Market cap
₩39B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩85B₩97B₩82B₩72B₩72B₩73B₩74B₩76B
Growth−1.7%15.1%−16.1%−1.7%−0.5%0.7%1.8%3.0%
EBIT−₩4.4B₩2.8B−₩813M−₩2B−₩1.9B−₩2B−₩2B−₩2.1B
EBIT margin−5.2%2.9%−1.0%−2.7%−2.7%−2.7%−2.7%−2.7%
After-tax EBIT−₩3.2B₩2B−₩590M−₩1.4B−₩1.4B−₩1.4B−₩1.4B−₩1.5B
+ Depreciation———₩217M₩216M₩218M₩222M₩228M
− Capital spending₩673M₩241M₩174M₩290M₩288M₩290M₩295M₩304M
− Working capital−₩5.8B₩26B−₩4.4B−₩29M−₩8.3M₩12M₩30M₩51M
Free cash flow———−₩1.5B−₩1.5B−₩1.5B−₩1.5B−₩1.6B
Discount factor———0.9340.8720.8150.7610.710
Present value———−₩1.4B−₩1.3B−₩1.2B−₩1.2B−₩1.1B

Terminal value −₩31B, worth −₩22B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩1,326 a share)Now 0.81×₩1,3561.02×₩2,5011.89×₩4,5763.45×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.1%—————
6.6%—————
7.1%—————
7.6%—————
8.1%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩39B
Enterprise value
₩43B
P/E
71.3×
P/B
0.8×
P/S
0.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,376₩1,268₩3,865₩3,600₩5,360
Market cap₩50B₩46B₩141B₩131B₩196B
P/E—9.5×———
P/B1.1×1.0×5.1×2.4×3.7×
P/S0.6×0.5×1.7×1.5×3.7×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Caelum71.3×0.8×0.5×—0.0%
CS Wind382.1×1.3×0.6×—2.6%
Hankuk Carbon8.0×1.2×0.9×—2.0%
Taewoong68.8×0.8×1.4×21.9×0.0%
YG-15.4×0.8×0.5×—1.8%
Bosung Power Technology19.8×2.2×1.9×9.1×0.0%
Hansun Engineering39.4×2.8×3.3×15.6×0.0%
Similar companies (median)29.6×1.2×1.1×15.6×0.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Caelum / 케일럼 / 258610 / KRX:258610

Source: KRX statistical information