CTR Mobility씨티알모빌리티
308170 · KOSPI · ₩308170 · 씨티알모빌리티
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩48B
- Equity value
- −₩236B
- WACC
- 4.5%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩3,480, the model needs an operating margin of 2.6% every year (it uses 0.7%).
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- ₩31,851
- +815.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.7%).
Revenue growth
- 2.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 0.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3.1%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 5.7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 9.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.18, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩446B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩187B
- Shares
- 8,610,000
- Share price
- ₩3,480
- Market cap
- ₩30B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩444B | ₩432B | ₩461B | ₩459B | ₩473B | ₩487B | ₩502B | ₩517B |
| Growth | 5.0% | −2.7% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩525M | ₩3.9B | ₩5.8B | ₩3.2B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.4B | ₩3.5B | ₩3.6B |
| EBIT margin | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩380M | ₩2.8B | ₩4.2B | ₩2.3B | ₩2.4B | ₩2.5B | ₩2.5B | ₩2.6B |
| + Depreciation | ₩15B | ₩14B | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩16B | ₩16B |
| − Capital spending | ₩21B | ₩32B | ₩23B | ₩26B | ₩27B | ₩28B | ₩29B | ₩29B |
| − Working capital | −₩5.9B | −₩4.6B | ₩21B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.3B | ₩1.3B | ₩1.4B | ₩1.4B |
| Free cash flow | ₩447M | −₩10B | −₩26B | −₩11B | −₩11B | −₩12B | −₩12B | −₩12B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.957 | 0.915 | 0.876 | 0.838 | 0.801 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩10B | −₩10B | −₩10B | −₩9.9B | −₩9.8B |
Terminal value ₩2.4B, worth ₩1.9B today: -4% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩9,806 a share)Now 0.35× | ₩4,7100.48× | ₩8,9590.91× | ₩15,3421.56× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩30B
- Enterprise value
- ₩217B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.4×
- P/S
- 0.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- 12.2×
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩6,820 | ₩5,930 | ₩12,300 | ₩13,000 | ₩22,500 |
| Market cap | ₩59B | ₩51B | ₩106B | ₩112B | ₩194B |
| P/E | — | — | — | 99.2× | 135.7× |
| P/B | 0.7× | 0.7× | 1.2× | 1.1× | 2.0× |
| P/S | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.2× | 0.3× | 0.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.1× | 11.2× | 15.7× | 16.7× | 16.4× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTR Mobility | — | 0.4× | 0.1× | 12.2× | 0.0% |
| Hyundai Mobis | 8.2× | 0.6× | 0.5× | — | 2.0% |
| SL | 6.0× | 0.8× | 0.4× | 3.7× | 0.0% |
| HL Mando | 10.5× | 0.6× | 0.2× | — | 2.0% |
| Samhyun | — | 13.0× | 18.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Hyundai WIA | 19.0× | 0.4× | 0.2× | — | 2.4% |
| SNT Dynamics | 13.6× | 0.7× | 0.9× | — | 6.7% |
| Similar companies (median) | 10.5× | 0.7× | 0.4× | 3.7× | 2.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: CTR Mobility / 씨티알모빌리티 / 308170 / KRX:308170
Source: KRX statistical information