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Vaxcell-Bio Therapeutics

323990 · KOSDAQ · ₩323990 · 박셀바이오

₩3,725▼ ₩65 (1.72%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩162B
Equity value
−₩151B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
  • Margins ranged from −83,851.2% to −219.6% over the last 3 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 25%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (2167.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 19.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (2167.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 14%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (2167.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (2167.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (2167.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -20%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 468.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 585.5%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.17, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩6.5B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩12B
Shares
23,257,345
Share price
₩3,725
Market cap
₩87B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩14M₩1.9B₩7.1B₩8.1B₩9.7B₩11B₩12B₩12B
Growth—13,737.3%271.6%25.0%19.5%14.0%8.5%3.0%
EBIT−₩12B−₩15B−₩15B−₩1.6B−₩1.9B−₩2.2B−₩2.4B−₩2.5B
EBIT margin−83,851.2%−791.9%−219.6%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩8.3B−₩11B−₩11B−₩1.2B−₩1.4B−₩1.6B−₩1.7B−₩1.8B
+ Depreciation———₩38B₩46B₩52B₩56B₩58B
− Capital spending₩199M₩4.1B₩6.8B₩48B₩57B₩65B₩70B₩73B
− Working capital−₩19B₩1.1B₩3.4B₩651M₩635M₩545M₩377M₩144M
Free cash flow———−₩11B−₩13B−₩15B−₩16B−₩16B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———−₩11B−₩12B−₩12B−₩12B−₩12B

Terminal value −₩148B, worth −₩104B today: 64% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,291 a share)Now 1.63×₩6,0092.62×₩11,3064.94×₩71,86831.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%—————
6.8%—————
7.3%—————
7.8%—————
8.3%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩87B
Enterprise value
₩74B
P/E
—
P/B
1.6×
P/S
13.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩9,990₩10,430₩22,450₩26,709₩33,944
Market cap₩232B₩243B₩522B₩621B₩789B
P/E—————
P/B3.8×3.4×6.3×26.6×26.2×
P/S32.9×127.7×38,046.7×——
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Vaxcell-Bio Therapeutics—1.6×13.3×—0.0%
Samsung Biologics34.7×8.2×15.1×—0.0%
Celltrion28.2×2.5×9.1×—0.0%
Alteogen76.3×27.5×58.0×—0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals15.2×6.0×7.1×—0.0%
Yuhan23.3×2.3×2.4×30.4×0.8%
HLB—15.5×54.7×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)28.2×7.1×12.1×30.4×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Vaxcell-Bio Therapeutics / 박셀바이오 / 323990 / KRX:323990

Source: KRX statistical information