Innogene이노진
344860 · KOSDAQ · ₩344860 · 이노진
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩650
vs the current price (₩1,483)
- Enterprise value
- ₩8.2B
- Equity value
- ₩9.8B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 56% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩1,483, the model needs an operating margin of 15.0% every year (it uses 6.4%).
- Or revenue growth +38.4 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- Margins ranged from 0.1% to 16.3% over the last 4 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩409
- −72.4%
- Base
- ₩650
- −56.2%
- Bull
- ₩1,084
- −26.9%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.4%).
Revenue growth
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -1.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 6.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 4 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.5%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 1.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.02, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩12B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩1.6B
- Shares
- 15,030,000
- Share price
- ₩1,483
- Market cap
- ₩22B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩10B | ₩8.9B | ₩8.2B | ₩12B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩12B |
| Growth | 10.5% | −11.4% | −8.2% | −3.5% | −1.9% | −0.2% | 1.4% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩1.2B | ₩630M | ₩4.5M | ₩737M | ₩723M | ₩722M | ₩732M | ₩754M |
| EBIT margin | 12.1% | 7.0% | 0.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩889M | ₩457M | ₩3.3M | ₩535M | ₩524M | ₩523M | ₩531M | ₩547M |
| + Depreciation | ₩228M | ₩221M | ₩224M | ₩288M | ₩283M | ₩282M | ₩286M | ₩294M |
| − Capital spending | — | ₩0 | ₩293M | ₩207M | ₩203M | ₩203M | ₩206M | ₩212M |
| − Working capital | ₩9.4B | ₩737M | −₩3.2B | −₩167M | −₩88M | −₩9M | ₩63M | ₩137M |
| Free cash flow | — | −₩59M | ₩3.1B | ₩782M | ₩691M | ₩611M | ₩548M | ₩492M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.751 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩728M | ₩599M | ₩493M | ₩411M | ₩344M |
Terminal value ₩8B, worth ₩5.6B today: 68% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩802 a share)Now 1.85× | ₩1,1391.42× | ₩1,4831.85× | ₩2,4223.02× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩711 | ₩733 | ₩760 | ₩793 | ₩837 |
| 6.9% | ₩663 | ₩680 | ₩699 | ₩723 | ₩752 |
| 7.4% | ₩623 | ₩635 | ₩650 | ₩667 | ₩687 |
| 7.9% | ₩589 | ₩598 | ₩608 | ₩620 | ₩635 |
| 8.4% | ₩559 | ₩566 | ₩573 | ₩582 | ₩592 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩22B
- Enterprise value
- ₩21B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 1.8×
- P/S
- 1.9×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 6.1%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩1,864 | ₩1,481 | ₩2,740 | ₩3,174 |
| Market cap | ₩28B | ₩22B | ₩41B | ₩48B |
| P/E | 97.3× | 23.6× | 29.5× | 35.6× |
| P/B | 2.0× | 1.3× | 2.6× | 7.1× |
| P/S | 3.4× | 2.5× | 4.1× | 5.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | 117.8× | 25.2× | 27.7× | 27.3× |
| Dividend yield | 4.8% | 5.4% | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Innogene | — | 1.8× | 1.9× | — | 6.1% |
| APR | 24.1× | 16.1× | 4.5× | 23.7× | 1.8% |
| Amorepacific | 25.4× | 1.3× | 1.6× | — | 1.0% |
| LG H&H | — | 0.7× | 0.6× | 6.8× | 0.8% |
| Cosmax | 16.2× | 4.6× | 1.1× | 13.8× | 1.3% |
| Kolmar Korea | 15.0× | 2.8× | 0.9× | — | 0.7% |
| d'Alba Global | 16.8× | 7.2× | 2.9× | — | 1.8% |
| Similar companies (median) | 16.8× | 3.7× | 1.4× | 13.8× | 1.1% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Innogene / 이노진 / 344860 / KRX:344860
Source: KRX statistical information