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Messe eSang

408920 · KOSDAQ · ₩408920 · 메쎄이상

₩2,835▲ ₩5 (0.18%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩10,942

vs the current price (₩2,835)

Enterprise value
₩410B
Equity value
₩473B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 286% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,835, the model needs an operating margin of 3.8% every year (it uses 25.1%).
  • Today's P/E is 7.0× against a typical 8.4× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩7,920
+179.3%
Base
₩10,942
+285.9%
Bull
₩15,810
+457.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (25.1%).

Revenue growth

  • 19.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (19.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 15.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (19.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 11.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (19.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (19.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (19.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 25.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 4 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 2.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -4.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.01, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩78B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩61B
+ Stakes and investments
₩2.3B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
43,232,455
Share price
₩2,835
Market cap
₩123B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩51B₩67B₩73B₩94B₩108B₩120B₩129B₩133B
Growth—32.0%8.6%19.7%15.5%11.4%7.2%3.0%
EBIT₩11B₩17B₩19B₩23B₩27B₩30B₩32B₩33B
EBIT margin22.0%25.5%26.1%25.1%25.1%25.1%25.1%25.1%
After-tax EBIT₩8.1B₩12B₩14B₩17B₩20B₩22B₩23B₩24B
+ Depreciation₩1B₩1.4B₩1.7B₩2.1B₩2.4B₩2.6B₩2.8B₩2.9B
− Capital spending₩875M₩4B₩381M₩2.5B₩2.9B₩3.3B₩3.5B₩3.6B
− Working capital−₩7.9B−₩763M−₩2.3B−₩724M−₩682M−₩579M−₩407M−₩182M
Free cash flow₩16B₩11B₩17B₩17B₩20B₩22B₩23B₩24B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩16B₩17B₩18B₩18B₩17B

Terminal value ₩462B, worth ₩324B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩1,953 a share)Now 1.45×₩2,8351.45×₩3,3601.72×₩4,6682.39×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩403 a share)Now 7.04×₩2,8076.96×₩3,3728.37×₩4,70111.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩502 a share)Now 5.65×₩3,4966.96×₩4,2008.37×₩5,85511.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩11,260₩12,122₩13,183₩14,523₩16,269
6.8%₩10,399₩11,099₩11,946₩12,989₩14,306
7.3%₩9,674₩10,253₩10,942₩11,773₩12,798
7.8%₩9,056₩9,541₩10,111₩10,787₩11,605
8.3%₩8,522₩8,934₩9,412₩9,971₩10,636

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩123B
Enterprise value
₩54B
P/E
7.0×
P/B
1.5×
P/S
1.6×
EV/EBITDA
2.4×
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

2025202420232022
Price₩3,210₩1,980₩2,390₩3,995
Market cap₩139B₩86B₩103B₩173B
P/E9.0×6.3×19.4×—
P/B1.7×1.2×1.7×26.5×
P/S1.9×1.3×2.0×—
EV/EBITDA3.6×1.9×4.9×—
Dividend yield0.0%0.0%——

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Messe eSang7.0×1.5×1.6×2.4×0.0%
S-124.0×2.1×1.3×—0.0%
Cheil Worldwide9.8×1.3×0.5×—6.5%
Doosan Tesna54.7×4.1×5.7×—0.2%
Lotte Tour Development15.4×2.2×1.1×—0.0%
Soulbrain Holdings1.3×0.4×1.3×—1.3%
Innocean Worldwide5.5×0.6×0.3×—6.7%
Similar companies (median)12.6×1.7×1.2×—0.7%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Messe eSang / 메쎄이상 / 408920 / KRX:408920

Source: KRX statistical information